MARK HALPERIN: Talarico excites liberals, but Texas history looms over Senate bid

Hope can indeed be dangerous.

State Rep. James Talarico said that Tuesday night — “A little hope is dangerous” — and he meant it as a call to action, a call to the faithful. But the line continues to hang in the Texas air for another reason. Democrats are about to invest a lot of time, money and, yes, hope, into the idea that a young state lawmaker from Round Rock is the man who will break a nearly four-decade drought without a victory for his party in the Lone Star State.

Hope can animate. It can also mislead.

For the Democrats, the drought is real. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Ann Richards is a memory. The Bush era came and went. The Tea Party rose. Donald Trump has recreated the Republican Party. Beto O’Rourke flashed and faded. And the red wall still holds strong, impregnable.

Now comes Talarico – youthful, fluid, quick on his feet, comfortable quoting the Bible and cable news sound bites in the same breath. The media loves him. He stunned Joe Rogan in a lengthy podcast appearance that had Democrats texting each other on the left with exclamation points. He raised some serious money. He has shown a knack for turning controversy into money, deftly turning a late-night fight involving Stephen Colbert into fundraising fuel and free publicity.

His first victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett surprised some Democratic insiders. Crockett had greater national name recognition, a strong base in Dallas and an endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris that many assumed would be decisive. That didn’t happen. The Harris imprimatur didn’t put Crockett over the top. Talarico won – not narrowly, not ambiguously, but convincingly enough to indicate that something real is going on within his party.

And yet.

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Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Senator John Cornyn finished just ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in their primary, forcing a runoff that will determine the race as much as anything Democrats do. Most experienced Texas political handicappers in both parties believe Cornyn would defeat Talarico in November. Cornyn is known, funded, proven and capable of running a disciplined campaign with national help. The Senate Republican apparatus would rally behind him in a heartbeat.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at a primary watch party on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (Eric Gay/AP Photo)

Opinions are more mixed on what would happen if Paxton were the nominee. Paxton carries baggage: legal troubles, ethical questions and a long trail of scandal headlines. Democrats are salivating at the prospect. They see a path: suburban Republicans uncomfortable with Paxton, independents turned away from drama, Hispanic and black voters, and an articulate Democrat who talks about faith and honesty.

But even here, hope may do more work than math.

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Because Democrats, intoxicated by Talarico’s rise, are overlooking an inconvenient truth: He’s a liberal. No moderate in centrist clothing. No trigonometry. On issue after issue — abortion, gun control, the border, climate, LGBTQ rights, taxes — he sits comfortably on the left flank of his party. In some ways he appears to be more liberal than Crockett, whose sharper rhetorical style sometimes obscured a more conventional policy profile.

Hope, divorced from history and arithmetic, can become its own kind of mirage. Democrats once believed Beto O’Rourke would do it. Before that it was Wendy Davis. Each time, the money poured in, the national media swooned, and Texas Republicans quietly counted their votes.

Talarico’s slick media appearances and professions of faith — he is open about his Christianity and often speaks of moral causes — have created the image of a post-partisan bridge figure. But there will be an investigation from the opposition. It always does. Republicans are already collecting images, speeches and votes. They dig into his issue positions and his personal life. The December story detailing his social media interactions with OnlyFans models and prostitutes certainly won’t be the last unflattering headline to surface in a general election.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico, D-Travis, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, shakes hands. (Bob Daemmrich/Getty Images)

Texas is not Manhattan or Malibu. It’s the energy corridors of Houston, the changing politics of the Rio Grande Valley, the fast-growing suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth and the small towns where cultural conservatism still buzzes beneath the surface. Democrats have made gains in the suburbs, yes, and Tuesday’s results indicate a return of the Hispanic vote to the Democrats. But a statewide victory will require threading a very narrow needle: expanding the urban base, retaining converts in the suburbs, winning decisively among Hispanics and slicing into Republican margins in rural areas without scaring culturally moderate voters.

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That’s a tightrope walk for any Democrat. This is especially true for someone with a reliably liberal record and a personal blank slate about to be filled in by super PAC ads.

On the Republican side, the calculation is cold and clear. The smart money says Donald Trump will overcome his friendship with Paxton and ultimately side with Cornyn, heeding the advice and pleas of top political aides aligned with the incumbent president, as well as Republican allies in the Senate such as Majority Leader John Thune. The reasoning is simple: support Cornyn, likely keep the seat, and avoid spending tens of millions of dollars on a brutal runoff and then a divisive general election at a time when every seat – and every dollar – counts.

Trump understands power. This also applies to the Republicans in the Senate. A lost seat in Texas wouldn’t just be front-page news; it would be a body blow.

Which gives us hope again.

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Talarico’s rise is real. His talent is undeniable. He’s given Texas Democrats something they haven’t had in a long time: a candidate who feels fresh rather than recycled, fluid rather than nervous, pious without being strict. In a politics that often seems exhausted, he looks energetic.

But hope, divorced from history and arithmetic, can become its own kind of mirage. Democrats once believed O’Rourke would do it. Before that it was Wendy Davis. Each time, the money poured in, the national media swooned, and Texas Republicans quietly counted their votes.

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“A little hope is dangerous,” Talarico said.

He meant it as inspiration. In Texas politics, it could prove prophetic.

CLICK HERE TO BY MARK HALPERIN

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