President Donald Trump must regain his momentum and maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2026. Otherwise, the Trump agenda is over. GOP priorities such as ending birthright citizenship, enacting voter ID laws and changing the census to exclude illegal immigrants will disappear along with the majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives.
The president has about eight months to reverse his declining poll numbers and win back the voters who elected him last year. If he fails, he could spend the next two years fighting another Democratic impeachment attempt.
Remember, it was just a few weeks ago that political pundits were writing obituaries for the Democratic Party. The party’s popularity was in the gutter, with favorability for Democrats at a thirty-year low. Democrats lacked leadership, and even a month before voters in New Jersey and Virginia went to the polls, candidates in those states had failed to find a winning message. All they had was hatred for Donald Trump.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS SAY THE WHITE HOUSE IS DOING MORE HARM THAN GOOD TO THE ECONOMY
That all changed almost overnight in November when voters flocked to the polls in support of Democrats, voicing their anger over persistent inflation, the longest government shutdown in American history and — yes — President Trump.
At the end of October, Polymarket showed that 57% of participants were betting that Democrats would take over the House of Representatives. Today, 72% expect Republicans to lose.
Things can change quickly in politics.
RESEARCH SAYS: PROBLEM THAT TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS IN 2024 HELPS HURT THEM NOW
To win the midterm elections, President Trump must spark a booming economy, lower the cost of living and present a coherent immigration policy.
Kevin Hassett, head of Trump’s National Economic Council, told FOX Business host Maria Bartiromo on the weekend that 2026 would be a ‘blockbuster year’. He’s probably right. The flood of investment coming into the country thanks to Trump’s trade deals is only beginning to show, while tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have given companies even more incentives to expand in the US.
Dozens of companies, including BioMADE, Genentech, L3Harris, Merck, AstraZeneca and Amkor Technology, have broken ground on new manufacturing facilities in recent months. The number of people employed in non-residential construction is increasing. While AI may slow down some industries, expanding companies and countries into the US will boost hiring, reassure consumers and support stable spending. The tax cuts coming next year will also boost consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, despite complaints about the impact of tariffs, there is growing evidence that Trump’s higher tariffs are not hampering trade or growth. The Wall Street Journal recently published this an analysis of CEO mentions by rates in the quarterly results, concluding: “Executives are starting to relax on rates after a year of anxiety.”
IT’S NOT JUST THE ECONOMY – THIS IS HOW THE Democrats BEAT THE GOP ACROSS THE COUNTRY
Hassett predicted that the Democratic-led government shutdown will roughly halve growth in the fourth quarter — from nearly 4% in the past six months to about 1.5% to 2%. Perhaps that’s why Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer insisted on keeping the government closed. Democrats know that a strong economy does not serve their political interests.
Focusing on affordability, the president has rolled back tariffs on specific products such as coffee and bananas, whose prices have soared. Overall inflation is just under 3%. The biggest challenges for consumers – and for President Trump – remain the costs of health insurance and housing.
People who enroll in Obamacare are facing steep premium increases due to the expiration of additional subsidies created under the American Rescue Act. Politico reports that the president is considering an extension of these payments for one or two years, limited to people earning up to 700% of the federal poverty level. If true, this seems like a reasonable compromise that would give the GOP time to pursue other solutions to the flawed program.
DAVID MARCUS: WHY REPUBLICANS REALLY NEED A TRUMP-CENTERED MIDTERM CONVENTION
Obamacare only serves about 7% of Americans. Since the individual mandate was repealed, the program has covered a smaller and sicker population than expected, driving up costs. Some Republican Party-backed reforms — such as allowing insurers to compete across state lines — were never implemented.
It’s time to revive those ideas, including true price transparency so patients can make comparisons, and tort reform to curb unnecessary tests and procedures done primarily to avoid lawsuits.
The Republican Party failed to repeal Obamacare; now it must fix what is broken.
Housing is also a hot issue, especially for younger voters. High mortgage rates have discouraged buyers and kept supply tight as homeowners refuse to sell with low interest rates. The Fed appears poised to cut rates next month, and once the president’s new Fed chair is confirmed, Trump will likely push for further rate cuts. Lower mortgage rates would free up frozen housing stock and make housing more affordable.
Trump could also cut tariffs on lumber and home building materials such as kitchen cabinets to help lower construction costs.
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On immigration, the president has accomplished much by tightening border security and encouraging millions to deport themselves. But his aggressive deportations and ICE raids have alarmed many Americans. What was once a winning issue has become a problem as his approval rating on immigration has dropped from positive to negative. Hispanics in particular are dissatisfied with Trump’s deportation strategy.
President Trump should announce that ICE will focus solely on arresting and deporting criminal aliens. He should also revisit popular proposals from his first term, such as adopting a merit-based system like Canada’s, ending the diversity visa lottery and limiting chain migration. The president should remind voters that Republicans support this legal immigration, but oppose illegal immigration – as do most Americans.
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There is a clear path to victory next November.
Trump can and must find it.
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