The headlines can proclaim a cease-fire, but let’s be clear: the Israeli-Iranian war is not nearly over yet. What we witness is not a peace – it is a tactical break. The weapons can be temporarily quiet, but the war remains alive in motif, method and mentality.
Don’t be fooled. Israel-Iran Stakes-Fires represents tactical break, no permanent peace
President Donald Trump’s announcement of 23 June of a “complete and total -the -the Fires” between Israel and Iran brought a welcome break up to twelve days of fatal escalation. Nevertheless, his own comments in the hours that followed, including on the way to NATO -TOP, the precarious nature of that agreement – and the volatility of the players involved.
Israël supports heavier strikes on Iran and maintains -fires after the pressure of Trump
Just before boarding Air Force One, Trump published a pointed public reprimand: “Calm, Israel!” He warned Prime Minister Benajamin Netanyahu that every strike against Iran would be a violation after the effective hour of the ceasefire. His words not only reflected diplomatic urgency, but also the vulnerability of the scheme he had just announced.
And yet, within a few hours, both Iran and Israel have launched limited retaliation actions. Trump, visibly frustrated, criticized both parties to break the faith: “They don’t know what the f *** they are doing.” He added: “I must let Israel calm down now,” underlined the extent to which the American pressure – no mutual trust – was the pivot of the early survival of ceases – fires.
That is where the truth lies: the war is not over. It simply has shifted shapes.
Is the war between Israel and Iran left? Only if we define ‘war’ in the narrowest kinetic terms. But if we understand war as a collision of wills, ideologies and strategic goals – then this war continues, just under another banner.
There is no treaty, no verification regime and no mutual recognition of legitimacy between the two states. Iran continues to deny Israel’s right to exist and Israel sees the nuclear program of Iran – and the regional proxy network – as existential threats. A formal stopping of hostilities requires more than silence; It requires resolution. We are nowhere close by.
Stop stopping -the -fire: can a break in fighting lead to permanent peace where conflicts have become the norm?
To understand why this war is not over yet, consider strategic objectives on each side. The Israel campaign was aimed at humiliating the nuclear infrastructure of Iran – in particular the underground enrichment location at Fordow. Although it is successful in the short term, it did not eliminate the scientific knowledge of Iran or ideological dedication to nuclear capacity. Tehran still has the technical talent, the raw materials, and – most dangerous – the motivation to rebuild and accelerate his weapon program.
Iran’s retaliation rocket on Israel and American bases in Qatar and Iraq – although largely intercepted – served as symbolic warnings. What is even more important is Tehran indicated that it retains the capacity to hit the region deep. That message was not only for Tel Aviv – it was for Washington, Riyad and the world.
Timeline: Trump’s Israel-Iran Stakten-Fires collapses almost hours after the announcement
The Shadow War continues behind the scenes. The Iran’s Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps still waps Hezbollah in Lebanon, trains militias in Iraq and Syria and leads proxy warfare through the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli air strikes on Damascus and other locations in Syria continue to exist, albeit in a lower way. Cyber ​​activities, drone surveillance and intelligence targeting remain completely alert. These are not post -war conditions. These are indicators for an unsolved and evolving conflict.
Even the diplomacy around the cessation -the fires reflects its vulnerability. The agreement was mediated through indirect channels, without officially joint communiqué, no approval of the UN and no follow -up card. Iran is not again involved in the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel, understandably, retains his right to strike again if necessary. The rhetoric has cooled, but the posture remains paved.
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And then there is the political reality. Leaders in both countries are confronted with domestic constituents who are skeptical about a compromise. Hardliners in Tehran see it striking -firing as a break to load again, no step in the direction of reconciliation. In Jerusalem, the Israeli audience broadly supports preventive action against a nuclear arming opponent. Neither parties have the political stimulus – nor strategic trust – to run away from confrontation.
So is the war on? Only if we define “war” in the narrowest kinetic terms. But if we understand war as a collision of wills, ideologies and strategic goals – then this war continues, just under another banner.
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The international community should not confuse this silence with peace. On the contrary, it must prepare for what comes next: a long -term period of secret confrontation, regional volatility and the always present risk of open warfare that returns with little warning. Diplomats must act urgently, not naive. Military leaders must remain alert. And political leaders – especially in Washington – resist the temptation to explain the victory before the conflict has really been resolved.
The visible annoyance of Trump and its blunt warnings serve as a memory: this -the fires is not safer than the temperatures and tactics of the opponents binding. The Israeli Iranian War is not over yet. It’s just his next, and perhaps most dangerous phase.
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