Once a revolutionary militia, the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran built ideology and fear. Now, after devastating losses, its future is uncertain.
After large military setbacks, Iran’s IRGC is faced with a turning point. Experts explain his roots, power and whether his reign of repression and terror can continue to exist.
Once an edge militia born from Revolution, the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has grown into the most feared and powerful power of the regime. But according to Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a leading expert in the field of Iran and author of “Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” said the recent American and Israeli strikes in Iran perhaps changed his trajectory.
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An Iraqi youth has a photo of Major-Major Mohammad Rabbani, a commander in the Iranian revolutionary guard who was killed at the Israeli bombing on Tehran, during a pro-Iran Protest in Baghdad near the Groene Zone, the Ultra-protected district of the American Ambassyt conflict. (Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty images)
Founded in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the IRGC was established to protect and spread the values ​​of the Islamic Republic – often through violence. Ostovar describes how its legitimacy evolved over time, initially from the overthrow of the Shah, then the war in Iran-Iraq, and later by the produced story of an eternal battle with the US and Israel.
“The IRGC was created by efforts to collect armed gangs of pro-regime, Komitehs. They maintained revolutionary edicts and developed a parallel and ideological military force as a result of administrative skepticism in the national army,” he explained.
People go past a large banner with portraits of killed leaders of Iran-released armed groups, including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, in Central Tehran, Iran, on 1 May 2025. (Mohammadali Najib/Midden -Sost images/AFP via Getty images)
“The IRGC is responsible for preserving and defending the revolution in Iran,” said Taleblu. “That is a reason why the Islamic Revolution of 1979 was not tamed, nor has the extremism of the regime lost a luster. If there is something, terrorism and hostage take place.”
“They created a Boogeyman in the US and Israel,” Ostovar added. “But today that ideology no longer resonates with most Iranians. The majority wants better relationships with the West and the isolationist position of the regime is tired of.”
Nowadays the IRGC is deeply intertwined with the administrative elite. “The IRGC and the administrative elite are in power and treat Iran as a springboard to export their revolution,” Talleblu noted.
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In the past year, Iran suffered a series of strategic defeats: Hezbollah has deteriorated in Lebanon, Hamas lame in Gaza, Syria Lost effectively and Iranian military infrastructure – including nuclear and rocket sites – in many cases destroyed by us and Israeli -Strikeen. Ostovar says that these losses have decimated the regional footprint of the IRGC and forced the regime to re -evaluate his strategy.
“They can try to rebuild everything – but that would take too long and be too difficult,” he said. “We will see them suppress them harder at home and tend to rebuild conventional military capacities such as air defense and advanced jets on China and Russia.”
Members of the Iranian revolutionary Guard March during a parade. The IRGC is designated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a foreign terrorist organization. A large part of his work is to work secretly outside of Iran. (Reuters)
Internally, the Economic Empire of the IRGC is also under growing pressure. Sanctions, cyber attacks and loss of battlefield have made operations much more difficult. Ostovar said that foreign banks avoid a connection with Iran for fear that they can accidentally deal with IRGC-linked entities, so that the group forced the front companies to operate abroad. “They have lost a lot, and now they will have to reduce their limited resources to rebuild. She will even stretch that thinner.”
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Despite this pressure, both Ostovar and Taleblu agree that it is unlikely that the IRGC will turn against the regime. “Just like the regime elite, the IRGC is at a crossroads,” said Taleblu. “They have lost many of their strategic brain confidence, but will probably remain loyal to a combination of ideological and material reasons – as long as the status quo does not change.”
Looking ahead, Iran can switch in and depend more on domestic repression than on external fear. “They can’t get weapons in Gaza. They have lost access to Lebanon. They can still try terrorism, but they have repeatedly failed – especially to Israeli goals,” Ostovar said. “On the other hand, suppressing their own people is something that they can do easily.”
He warns that Iran could “become more insular, more autocratic – more like North Korea than what it is today.” Although the collapse of the regime is always a possibility, Ostovar believes that autocracies are often resilient. “Look at Venezuela or Cuba – they have walked their countries in the ground, but are still in power.”
On this photo released by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Friday 13 June 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)
Ostovar thinks that change – and not for good – could come through generation shift. “The younger framework of the IRGC is less religious, but no less hardline,” he said. “They may not care about hijabs, but they have spent the last two decades fighting against the US and Israel in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. That is the war they know.”
Some reformist elements within the regime represent a different path – a focused on standardization and growth. “They don’t want to keep the regime by fighting the world, but by opening themselves,” said Ostovar. “They look more at Vietnam or China as models.”
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Taleblu warned that despite recent setbacks, the grip of the IRGC remains strong. “At the moment, the guards have power without accountability, who exert political, economic and military influence in Iranian policy. How this influence is channeled by the next generation of Guardsmen can still be seen.”
