EXCLUSIVE: If American, Israeli and allied forces If they continue to intercept the vast majority of Iranian missiles and drones, a new report and expert analysis reveal a growing concern behind the great success: the cost and sustainability of the defense itself.
But beneath that success lies a widening imbalance that could shape the next phase of the conflict.
The report points to a crucial trend: Iran’s cheapest weapons are proving the most disruptive, exhausting expensive American and Israeli interceptors.
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The US Central Command has released images of attacks on Iranian mobile missile launchers. (@CENTCOM via X)
The current air defense architecture, which integrates American, Israeli and Arab systems, has proven highly effective at stopping incoming threats. Early warning systems, shared radar coverage and pre-positioned assets have allowed multiple countries to work together to defeat Iranian missiles and drones.
At a press conference on Wednesday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “To date, more than 9,000 enemy targets have been hit… Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacks have declined by approximately 90%,” she said, adding that US forces have also destroyed more than 140 Iranian naval vessels, including nearly 50 minelayers.
A surge of US assets before the war, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), batteries, Patriot systemsAccording to JINSA’s report, two aircraft carrier strike groups and about 200 fighter jets helped absorb Iran’s opening salvos and maintain a high interception rate.
But Ari Cicurel, deputy director of foreign policy at JINSA and author of the report, says focusing only on interception rates misses the bigger picture.
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Israeli air defenses target Iranian missiles in the skies of Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025. (MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Danny Citrinowicz, a Middle East and national security expert at the Institute for National Security Studies and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said imbalance is at the heart of the problem.
He added that the same dynamic applies to ballistic missiles.
“Building a missile in Iran can cost a few hundred thousand dollars, while the interceptor costs millions, especially when we talk about systems like Arrow,” he said. “It’s easier and faster to produce missiles than it is to build interceptors. That’s no secret.”
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, seen from the city of Ashkelon, Israel, October 9, 2023. (Amir Cohen/Reuters)
This cost imbalance fuels a broader problem: interceptor depletion.
The JINSA report warns that supplies are already under pressure across the region. Some Gulf states have used a significant portion of their interceptor stockpiles, with estimates suggesting Bahrain has used up to 87% of its Patriot missiles, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have used around 75% and Qatar around 40%.
Israel is too faced with increasing pressure. Although officials have not publicly confirmed stockpile levels, the report notes signs of rationing, including decisions not to intercept certain cluster munition threats in order to preserve more advanced interceptors.
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The remains of a Russian-made, Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drone, known in Russia as a Geran-2, along with other recovered drones, glide bombs, rockets and missiles are displayed in Kharkiv on July 30, 2025. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)
Citrinowicz said the dynamics become more acute the longer the war continues.
“We are now a few weeks after the warAnd even if the salvos are limited, the issue of interceptors becomes more important over time,” he said.
Iran has adjusted its tactics accordingly, moving from large barrages to smaller, more frequent attacks designed to maintain constant pressure while gradually depleting defensive resources.
These sustained salvos, even if limited in size, force defenders to remain on high alert and continue deploying interceptors, accelerating the depletion of already finite supplies.
The report underlines that drones pose a unique challenge compared to ballistic missiles.
Unlike missiles, which rely on large launchers and leave detectable signatures, drones can be launched from mobile platforms and fly at low altitudes, making them harder for radar systems to detect.
For example, a Shahed-136 weighs about 200 kilograms and is launched from an angled rail mounted on a pickup truck, allowing the crew to move quickly. That simpler launch profile makes it easier for Iran to disperse, hide and fire under pressure, the report said.
Iran has also recorded lessons of the war in Ukraine, deploying more advanced drones, including those guided by fiber-optic cables that are immune to electronic jamming, and faster variants powered by jet engines.
These innovations complicate interception timelines and increase the likelihood of successful attacks, even against otherwise effective defense systems.
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Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted, seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 15, 2025. (REUTERS/Tomer Neuberg)
Despite these challenges, the report emphasizes that the defensive architecture has not failed.
“The architecture has held up, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction,” Cicurel said. “Reversing this will require shifting resources to where pressure is greatest, more aggressively hunting Iranian launchers and drones, and convoying ships through the Gulf.”
Even with high interception rates, the broader impact of the attacks is felt.
Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping have driven up oil prices Traffic through the Street was disrupted of Hormuz, demonstrating that air defense alone cannot prevent the economic and strategic consequences.
The picture that emerges is not that of failing defense mechanisms, but of a system that is increasingly under pressure.
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An explosion is reported near the US Consulate and the Erbil International Airport area, which is also home to a US military base, in Erbil, Iraq, causing a fire and thick smoke to rise after the explosion, on March 12, 2026. (Ahsan Mohammed Ahmed Ahmed/Anadolu via Getty Images)
As long as Iran can produce cheap drones and missiles faster than the US, and Israel and their partners can produce interceptors, the balance can gradually shift.
“As long as the war continues,” Citrinowicz said, “the most important question will be whether Iran can produce missiles faster than we can produce interceptors.”
