As Iran faces escalating nationwide protests and mounting verbal threats from the Trump administration, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week issued a stark warning to the United States from an unusual platform — his Russian-language report on X — a move that analysts say underlines Tehran’s alignment with Moscow as pressure on the regime mounts.
In a Jan. 11 message, Khamenei wrote in Russian: “The United States today is miscalculating in its approach to Iran.” Hours later, he followed up with a second message, also in Russian, warning that the Americans had suffered defeat before because of “miscalculations” and would do so again because of “faulty planning.”
Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economy and Security (ROPES) and associate fellow at Chatham House, said the choice of language was significant, even if the execution was clumsy.
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Khamenei’s warning came as Iran’s internal crisis deepens. At least 544 people have been killed in nationwide protests, with dozens of additional cases still under investigation, according to HRANA, a human rights group monitoring the unrest. Opposition group NCRI has claimed the death toll is much higher – more than 3,000 – although exact figures remain difficult to verify due to widespread internet disruptions imposed by Iranian authorities.
President Donald Trump has led U.S. criticism in response to the rising death toll. In response to a question about whether Iran has crossed a red line, Trump responded by saying: “They’re starting to do that, it seems. And it appears to be people who have been killed who shouldn’t be killed. These are violent. When you call them leaders, I don’t know if they’re leaders, or just governing by force. But we’re looking at it very seriously,” he said aboard Air Force One on Sunday.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shake hands during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, January 17, 2025. (Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool via Reuters)
“We are looking at some very strong options,” he added.
Iranian leaders have pushed back, accusing Washington of meddling and warning that any U.S. military action would lead to retaliation against American forces and allies in the region.
At the same time, Tehran has indicated that it wants to keep diplomatic back channels open. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that communications between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff remain active. Axios separately reported that Araghchi contacted Witkoff this weekend amid Trump’s warnings of possible military action.
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In this frame shot from a video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked protester holds a photo of Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)
Despite these overtures, analysts say Khamenei’s Russian-language message reflects where Iran sees its most reliable strategic partner.
Russia has become a crucial lifeline for Tehran, especially as Moscow relies on Iranian-supplied drones and other military equipment for its war in Ukraine. That dependence, Svetlova said, means that Iran’s internal instability could have serious consequences for the Kremlin.
“I think that could have a dramatic effect because they are dependent on Iran – especially the military production, the drones and ballistic missiles,” she said. “They need them to continue their war against Ukraine.”
Yet the partnership has also caused resentment within Iran. Svetlova pointed to criticism after the 12-day war with Israel, when many Iranians accused Moscow of not coming to Tehran’s aid.
“There was a lot of criticism in Iran of Russia for not coming to help,” she said. ‘It reached no range. It didn’t actually do anything.’
Still, she said Russia has few alternatives as its global position shrinks. As old allies have been weakened or toppled, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on Tehran — even as it remains largely silent on the protests rocking Iran.
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Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026. (Kamran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Against that backdrop, Svetlova explained, Khamenei’s warning in Russian appears to be a signal – to Washington and to Moscow – that Iran sees its confrontation with the United States as part of a shared front with President Vladimir Putin.
