Mark Dubowitz says Trump has ‘maximum leverage’ over Iran as ceasefire begins
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, analyzes President Trump’s firm Iran policy after a two-week ceasefire. He highlights the weakened state of the regime after 15 months of Trump’s administration, making it unlikely that Iran’s 10-point peace plan with “ridiculous demands” will be accepted. Dubowitz discusses the choice facing Iran’s new regime.
The lack of a two-week lull in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be a dealbreaker for the Iranian regime as the ceasefire takes effect.
While the Trump administration insists the deal does not include the Tehran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, Iran is threatening to use that exclusion as a pressure point against the US, potentially collapsing the entire ceasefire.
On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on
IRAN UNVEILS A 10-POINT PLAN FOR PEACE WITH THE US – THIS IS WHAT IS INCLUDED
Rescuers search for victims at the site of an Israeli airstrike that hit a busy neighborhood south of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, April 5, 2026. (Hussein Malla/AP)
His comments were later echoed by Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, citing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Earlier in the day, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key mediator in the US-Iran ceasefire talks over Operation Epic Fury, said the two-week ceasefire would include Lebanon.
Hezbollah reneged on a US-negotiated November 2024 ceasefire by entering the war against Israel in March 2025 to aid Iran. Many experts say that long-term regional security depends on the disarmament of the terror group by the Lebanese government and army.
Hezbollah al-Mahdi scouts parade with large portraits of the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini, in the foreground, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the background, during an event celebrating Jerusalem Day or Al-Quds Day, in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon, Thursday, August 1, 2013. The last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan is celebrated in many Muslim countries as Al-Quds Day, as a way of showing support for the Palestinians and emphasizing the importance of Jerusalem to Muslims. (Hussein Malla/AP)
He added that “the dismantling of Hezbollah must be carried out in phases. The Lebanese government must first take possession of the heavy weapons. Do not allow it to concentrate except in Dahiya.” [a Beirut suburb that is a Hezbollah and Shiite stronghold]. Leave it in one place and check all the roads leading to it. Little by little it can be disassembled. Israel cannot and must not disarm Hezbollah. It can only help with bombing from above.”
TRUMP’S IRAN CITY FIRE SWINGS WITHIN HOURS AGAINST REPORTED MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS
US President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Mar-a-Lago club on December 29, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
On Wednesday, the IDF said it had struck more than 100 targets in 10 minutes, including “Hezbollah headquarters, military units and command and control centers: intelligence command centers and central headquarters used by Hezbollah terrorists to direct and plan terrorist attacks against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians.” Reuters quoted the country’s health ministry as saying that around 91 people have been killed in Beirut, with a total of at least 182 deaths across the country on Wednesday.
The IDF added: “The large-scale attack was based on precise IDF intelligence and was meticulously planned over weeks. Most of the affected infrastructure was located in the heart of the civilian population, as part of Hezbollah’s cynical exploitation of Lebanese civilians as human shields to protect its operations. Prior to the attacks, steps were taken to minimize damage to uninvolved individuals.”
Since the start of the war and before Wednesday’s attacks, Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 1,530 people in Lebanon, according to the Associated Press. The Long War Journal notes “that neither the Lebanese Health Ministry nor Hezbollah has provided an official count of the group’s fallen fighters.”
This image shows Hezbollah terrorists. A ‘terrorist network’ financed and operated by Hezbollah and Iran has been foiled in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto)
Fakhoury, a native of Lebanon, said: “The majority of Lebanese believe that Hezbollah’s actions caused Israel to occupy southern Lebanon and do not want Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah threatens the entire government.”
VANCE WARNS IRAN WILL FIND OUT TRUMP ‘IS NOT ONE TO MESS around’ IF LAUNDRY TEST DEAL FALLS OUT
A mourner holds a poster showing Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the US-Israeli campaign in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
As president and co-founder of the Amer Foundation, an organization dedicated to helping families of illegal detainees and educating on Middle East policy and geopolitics, she said some positive steps are being taken, including Lebanese President Joseph Aoun calling for negotiations with Israel.
She said that “the only solution is peace with Israel. I think there are many Shiites who are against Hezbollah… The majority of the Lebanese people just want peace. We hope that the Trump administration will push the Lebanese government and the Israeli government to start peace talks.”
Last week, the Iranian regime defied Lebanon’s deportation order for its ambassador by saying he would stay, further increasing tensions in a country in the crosshairs of the latest developments. fighting between the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanon had declared Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani ‘persona non grata’ to weaken Iran’s diplomatic presence and get a charge d’affaires at the embassy instead. But the deadline to leave the country was Sunday and an Iranian spokesman said the ambassador’s mission in Beirut would continue.
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The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
