President Donald Trump mediated a historic cessation on Monday -the fire agreement between Israel and Iran, which marked a dramatic break in the most important military confrontation between the two enemies.
The announcement on Monday evening came into force 12 hours later, after a timeline designed to allow the last military maneuvers on both sides. A barrage of Iranian rocket fire in the following hours, however, many Israelis wondered whether the truce had already been violated.
Trump brokers Iran ceases -the -fires as experts say that the arsenal of the regime is crushed, but the threat remains
President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at the Israel-Iran Stakten-Fires before they on Tuesday 24 June 2025 in Washington, DC Banking on Tuesday 24 June 2025. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Spencer described the American operation as historical.
“What is historical is that the US has carried out a limited operation on nuclear goals with zero losses – no pilot, no equipment – and Israel in a way that only America could help. Nuclear proliferation is not – party -bound, and this was an apolitical victory.” Even after Iran had hit an American basis in Qatar, he added: “The president showed an enormous reluctance and continued to focus on the broader goal: preventing Iran to get a nuclear weapon and continue his terror campaign.”
Despite the violence that followed the announcement – including an Iranian strike that killed four civilians in Israel – Spencer believes that it will stop – the fire. “Both countries have now said we will definitely do it,” he said. “And yes, President Trump is very atypical in the way he communicates with the ceases -firing … with the” don’t let any bomb fall “.
To understand how stakes -the fires such as it unfold, be Spencer on five historical precedents characterized by delayed activation, phased goals and a final window for military positioning.
An Israeli fighter jet starts to launch air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. (IDF)
Korean War Armistice (1953)
Signed on July 27, 1953, the truce that ended the Korean war was structured with a deliberate 12 -hour delay before he came into force. “This allowed the last military movements for a synchronized stop,” said Spencer-a model that the Israel-Iran is closely reflected.
A Tour group visits the Korean war memorial on Veterans Day in Washington, DC
Yom Kippur War Oversefire (1973)
The then Minister of Defense, General Moshe Dajan, left, with the then Major General Ariel Sharon on the Egyptian side of the Suez Canal during the 4th Israeli Arabian war on October 18, 1973. (Photo by Upi/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
Spencer noted that Israel used in 1973 in the last hours before a non-average sting-fire to move troops. “Israel made a number of movements in those last hours … To surround the third army, move to Suez City,” he said, referring to his case study about the Battle of Suez City.
Trump announces the historic Iran and Israel counter -style agreement to end ’12 Day War ‘
Dayton Accords (1995)
A Bosnian woman walks between the tombstones in Memorial Center Potocari near Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)
By ending the Bosnian War, the US-Bema average Dayton Peace Accords established a phased timeline for troops and political similarities. “That was a UN, several countries that register in an agreement of what both parties would and would not do,” explained Spencer, in contrast to the looser conditions of the current Israel-Iran Stakten-Furen.
Israel-HAMAS CEASEFIRES (2014)
Smoke rises over buildings in northeastern Gaza City after a rocket from Gaza was brought short of his target on August 21, 2014. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty image)
Spencer also attracted parallels with the 2014 war in Gaza. “Hamas would say,” Okay, we want a cease -the Fire … until the next time she ceases it -break the fire, “he said. Many of those similarities had 12 to 72-hour activation delays, similar to what is now seen with Iran.
Propose Ukraine-Russia-Stakes
Service of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine fire A French MO-12-RT heavy mortar in the Russian troops on the front line near the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region in Ukraine on Wednesday 22 May 2024. (Iryna Rybakova via AP)
Even more recent, during the current war in Russia-Ukraine, ceasefires were often short and symbolic. “Putin said,” I want three days so that I can do my parade, “Spencer noted, and emphasized how temporary breaks can serve both strategic and political needs.
While the past ceases -the Fires were designed to slow down escalation, Spencer sees it as part of a broader strategic doctrine. “To help Israel in a way that only the United States could do, that should not be -party -bound,” he said. “For the United States to do a very limited operation, without a single loss of American life … That is unique.”
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Rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, on Friday 13 June 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)
Spencer described the cease-fire as “an off-disaster” for both parties. “Sausage fire here means that both parties will stop shooting on each other. It does not mean that Iran will stop singing” death to America and death to Israel, “he said. “But the operations and hostilities have stopped.”
Despite the lack of formal conditions or international enforcement, Spencer believes that the agreement has created a new precedent. “This has established a new doctrine,” he said, with reference to Israel’s ability to dominate Iranian skies and the American reaction to nuclear proliferation threats. “If Iran decides to rebuild some sites somewhere, the threats will be more present than ever.”
Spencer concluded: “It is a victory. When red lines are really red lines, they are effective in the event of deterrence.”
