For Americans wondering about the future of China and its relationship with the West, the latest verdict in the Jimmy Lai case appears to be an ominous harbinger of Hong Kong’s continued slide into authoritarianism. Lai, the self-made billionaire, media entrepreneur and pro-democracy activist, has been held captive by the Chinese Communist Party for five years under Hong Kong’s National Security Law. He was eventually convicted on December 14 on trumped-up charges of sedition.
The verdict, delivered in 855 pages of meaningless babble, is Lai’s second conviction during his state-sponsored prosecution since the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019. Lai was previously found guilty of lease violations related to Apple Daily, his popular former newspaper that was closed by the Chinese government in 2021, and sentenced to 69 months in prison. The latest charges, for which Lai will be sentenced in early January, carry a prison sentence of 10 years to life.
Of course, these nuances and timelines are meaningless; Lai has been imprisoned since December 2020, with his case postponed, extended, postponed, appealed, and otherwise staged in accordance with the CCP’s wishes. Lai was also denied lawyers of his choice. Hong Kong will likely throw the book at him in January, and Lai – already in poor health due to the apparently inhumane conditions of his solitary confinement – will ultimately face death in prison. It’s a grim birthday present for Lai, who recently turned 78.
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How did we get here? Lai knows why and describes himself as a ‘troublemaker, but someone with a good conscience’. “The establishment hates my guts,” Lai says, and you would have to say he has earned that hatred with a leadership in Beijing and now Hong Kong that does not tolerate dissent. Having participated in the 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, supported the Umbrella Movement in 2014 and raised public concerns over the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Lai has long been a thorn in the side of the CCP.
Lai’s irreverent, pro-free speech outlets, Apple Daily and Next Magazine, regularly reported undesirable facts, challenged the status quo and asked tough questions of Chinese officials amid growing state censorship. It was Lai’s courageous, decades-long commitment to democratic values that led my organization, The Fund for American Studies, to honor him in 2022 with the Kenneth Y. Tomlinson Award for Courageous Journalism.
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Of all his goals, Lai’s most cherished was the protection of his adopted city, Hong Kong. Lai had escaped there as a child after growing up in mainland China in the 1950s, and knew firsthand that communist regimes deprive their people of basic freedoms. Despite China’s treaty agreement with Britain and the CCP’s “one country, two systems” commitment, which guaranteed Hong Kong’s autonomy until at least 2047, Lai foresaw that the CCP would accelerate its eventual takeover of Hong Kong.
Creeping authoritarianism on the mainland is why my organization ended its program at the University of Hong Kong after 2019. We foresaw the coming crackdown in Hong Kong, and this week’s verdict is yet another nail in the coffin of Hong Kong’s once internationally respected justice system. In a chilling coincidence, the Hong Kong Democratic Party, the city’s largest opposition group, also voted to dissolve on the eve of the verdict. Unfortunately, our concerns (and Lai’s) about Hong Kong’s future have proven true.
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Where do we go from here? First, Western leaders must continue to push for Lai’s release on humanitarian grounds. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to visit China next month, and his government has said the release of Lai (who is a British citizen) is a priority. This week, President Donald Trump also asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping to release Lai. Now that Lai’s formal conviction is public, space may open up for a diplomatic solution. Now is the time to increase the pressure for his release.
Second, the West must remain vigilant in the face of China’s continued belligerence against its neighbors and suppression of values such as freedom of expression, religious freedom and press freedom. These are values that are under attack worldwide. Journalists, religious figures and democracy advocates have been killed or imprisoned for exercising these rights. Jimmy Lai exemplifies incredible courage and commitment to democratic values, but his imprisonment is also a sobering warning of the dangers of authoritarianism.


