The UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, starts on November 6 with a summit of world leaders and runs until November 21. She will emphasize “the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for accelerated and collective climate action.” However, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has just issued a memo addressed to the participants of the COP30, in which he proposes a fundamental shift in priorities: focus on poverty reduction instead of climate change.
Gates, who previously placed the utmost importance on measures to reduce emissions in the short term, has drawn criticism for arguing that “a metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature changes.” [is] improve lives. Our main goal must be to prevent suffering, especially for those living in the harshest conditions in the world’s poorest countries.”
His argument rests on three key premises: climate change poses serious challenges but does not pose an existential threat to civilization; temperature measurements alone do not sufficiently measure climate-related progress; and better health and economic prosperity provide the most effective defense against climate change.
Gates provides data showing that achieving net-zero emissions would result in a temperature increase of 1.9 degrees Celsius over 1990 levels, while doing nothing would result in a 2.9 degree increase. This one-degree difference, he argues, suggests that resources allocated to net-zero targets could yield greater humanitarian benefits if used for energy access and disease prevention.
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Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates surprised social media users when he wrote that climate change does not represent a doomsday scenario for the Earth. (Sean Gallup/Getty)
The correlation between energy consumption and economic prosperity is striking. Countries with annual per capita incomes below $1,145 use about 1,100 kilowatts per person annually, while countries with per capita incomes above $14,005 use 55,000 kilowatts per person annually, according to data cited by Gates.
The real inequality, Gates argues, lies in the differences in human development. A child born in South Sudan has a 39 times higher risk of dying before the age of five than a Swedish child. These vulnerable populations need better access to energy, nutrition and healthcare infrastructure.
The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is unequivocal: no country has achieved high per capita income with low per capita energy consumption, and conversely, no country has high energy consumption alongside persistent poverty.
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Greater access to energy facilitates better living standards through greater productivity, agricultural progress and household consumption, reducing dependence on subsistence agriculture. The availability of energy provides farmers with modern agricultural technologies or enables economic mobility to pursue alternative livelihoods.
High-energy countries benefit from superior healthcare infrastructure and water purification systems, resulting in lower maternal and infant mortality rates and greater capacity for environmental protection measures.
The devastation of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica illustrates how natural disasters disproportionately damage developing countries compared to rich countries, due to differences in energy infrastructure, resilient construction and recovery capacity. Affordable access to energy is essential to address these inequalities.
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Energy poverty in many African and Latin American countries is fueling migration pressures as residents seek higher living standards in fossil fuel-rich regions, especially Europe and North America.
To support emerging economies and ease migration pressures, President Donald Trump has lifted restrictions on loans to developing countries for fossil fuel projects. Financial institutions are no longer obliged to solely finance renewable energy initiatives.
Climate demonstrators protest outside the Royal Courts of Justice, Strand on February 20, 2024 in London, England. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
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The 140 private banks from 44 countries that participated in the United Nations Net Zero Banking Alliance – including Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Sumitomo – have suspended their commitments to limit fossil fuel financing. The World Bank, which has historically discouraged lending to fossil fuels and nuclear power while prioritizing renewables, may reconsider its position.
This policy change will enable developing countries to secure financing for conventional power plants, transmission infrastructure, distribution networks and household connections. Importantly, this change reduces China’s strategic advantage in lending to African and Latin American countries, often securing ports and other assets as collateral.
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Gates’ turnaround on the climate debate challenges the international community to confront an uncomfortable reality. While climate conferences take place in developed countries with reliable electricity and healthcare systems, billions lack access to the energy that makes such meetings possible.
His argument suggests that the most effective climate strategy may be to ensure that vulnerable populations have the resources to adapt and thrive, rather than pursuing emissions targets that could perpetuate the very poverty that worsens climate vulnerability. Whether policymakers at COP30 will heed this message remains uncertain, but Gates has managed to reframe the conversation around what climate action should ultimately serve: economic progress, not just atmospheric targets.
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