If you’ve noticed that your local Chipotle or CAVA feels a little quieter during your lunch hour, you’re not imagining it. Gen Z has literally sunk its teeth into casual dining and picked up grocery bags instead.
Chipotle’s CEO Scott Boatwright recently said that younger diners, especially those between the ages of 25 and 35, are “facing several headwinds” and are simply not dining out as often. The translation: Generation Z is going bankrupt and they know it. The $15 burrito bowl has become a symbol of a generation tightening its belt as mounting grocery price pressures, student loan payments and mounting credit card debt spiral out of control.
Eating out quickly and informally was once considered an affordable convenience and has now become a minor luxury. Boatwright said bluntly that Chipotle isn’t losing younger customers to competitors; it loses them to supermarkets and food at home. Think about that. The same people who fueled the fast-casual boom are now saying, “I’m just going to cook.”
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At CAVA, CEO Brett Schulman sees the same pattern. He admits that younger guests are “making more conscious choices” about their spending. Even though CAVA bowls usually cost $11 to $13, that still feels like a splurge. Your bank account balance is less than 30 days away from zero. Schulman calls the current economy a “fog,” and into that fog fast-casual restaurant traffic disappears.
In 2025, the same people who once fueled the fast-casual boom are now deciding to cook at home. (iStock)
Generation Z is encountering a financial fog
This generation is not lazy or spoiled. They are currently in financial trouble. Student loan payments have resumed for millions of borrowers, with more than 50% of people still unpaid. Credit card debt just reached record highs of over $1.2 trillion. Car loans now last seven or even eight years for many younger buyers. And while rents and grocery prices are rising, real wage growth has stalled.
This is what ‘voting with your wallet’ will look like in 2025. We just saw this in the mayoral elections in New York City. And you’ll see this issue become number one in the 2026 midterm elections.
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In the past, younger consumers led dining trends by paying more for organic, sustainable or fast-casual meals that felt luxurious but affordable. Now those same consumers are financially maximized. While many earn decent incomes, after-tax real wages are simply not keeping pace with debt levels and overall inflation.
The macro shift is hitting Main Street
This isn’t just about burrito bowls or Mediterranean grain bowls. It’s a signal that consumer behavior is changing across the country, and this trend will continue given the broader picture of sustainable housing affordability. Younger Americans are voting with their wallets and saying, we’re done paying $20 for lunch.
Generation Z is not anti-burrito. They stop eating out and respond to a generation’s broken financial balance. Now that inflation is eating away at their wages and debts are piling up, they are cutting back on all kinds of small luxuries. (iStock)
Fast-casual dining chains based their success on speed, quality and a perceived value gap between fast-food and full-service restaurants. But that middle ground is now under siege, and people are returning to dollar-value menus at fast-food restaurants and discount stores like Aldi.
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Currently, value-oriented chains such as McDonald’s, Chili’s and Domino’s are gaining market share. When inflation bites, people trade down. They still want convenience without paying the premium price tag. The same $12 to $15 spent on a fully stocked bowl can cover two homemade dinners or a week’s worth of frozen meals.
What does this mean for CAVA and Chipotle?
For anyone who runs or buys a restaurant, your customer base is changing. The 25- to 35-year-old demographic, once the lifeblood of fast-casual dining, is disappearing faster than guacamole on a Friday night.
(For anyone who runs or buys a restaurant, your customer base is changing. The 25-to-35 demographic, once the lifeblood of fast-casual dining, is disappearing faster than guacamole on a Friday night.)
If your concept relies heavily on younger diners, it’s time to rethink pricing, promotions and loyalty. People still love good food, but they are looking for value. Boatwright has already said Chipotle won’t chase customers by lowering prices. That’s admirable, but it’s risky and stocks like CAVA and Chipotle could suffer significant pain. Holding the line when consumers feel pressured can hurt traffic a lot more than you think.
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From a valuation perspective, buyers are increasingly looking at guest demographics, frequency trends and economic resilience. A restaurant that relies on young professionals could see its valuation drop unless it can prove stability in a recession.
Is Generation Z anti-burrito?
Generation Z is not anti-burrito. They have woken up and realized that getting out of debt is not worth the mental and financial stress. They’re giving up dining and responding to a generation’s broken financial equation. Now that inflation is eating away at their wages and debts are piling up, they are cutting back on all kinds of small luxuries.
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This is what “voting with your wallet” looks like in 2025. We just saw this in the New York City mayoral elections, and you’ll see this become the number one issue in the 2026 midterm elections. And until the economic fog clears, restaurants and politicians who don’t adapt to understanding the plight of this generation will find themselves with a lot of empty restaurant seats and a lot of empty voters in the next big election.
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So remember this the next time you walk past a Chipotle line that is half of what it used to be. It’s not about the money, it’s always about the money.
Gen Z doesn’t skip burrito bowls because they don’t like Chipotle and CAVA, they just don’t like a $20 receipt for one.
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