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Forecast markets clearly indicate a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with the probability hovering above 80% for both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders on both platforms see only a slim chance that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady and expect virtually no bigger move.
On Polymarket, trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is just over $171 million.
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A bet on Polymarket that follows the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in December. (Polymarkt)
Meanwhile, more than $15.8 million worth of bets have been placed on Kalshi on the Fed’s decision market.
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Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market opportunities.
A Kalshi bet that follows the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision. (Kalshi)
The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled opportunity to adjust rates is at its Dec. 9-10 policy meeting, when the rate-setting committee will meet to decide whether to raise, lower or maintain rates.
The meeting comes amid the Trump administration’s efforts to address the affordability crisis, which is marked by rising housing costs, higher prices for necessities and increasing financial pressure on families.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was appointed by Trump to lead the country’s central bank. (Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump, in turn, has blamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively. Powell’s chairmanship ends in May 2026.
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Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent completed interviews for Powell’s potential replacement on Tuesday, and Trump could announce a new Fed chairman by Christmas.
