Experts warn that Maduro’s fall could produce an ‘even worse’ successor

As the Trump administration escalates pressure on Venezuela, experts warn that Nicolás Maduro’s downfall could open the door to a successor “even worse” than the dictator himself, unleashing a landscape dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla factions and armed warlords that have established themselves across Venezuela for decades.

Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. security official focused on Latin America, said the trajectory is now binary.

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“The way I see it, what comes next will largely depend on the direction this American pressure campaign goes,” Vigil said. “If it moves toward escalation and conflict, that means there will be very little control — or even less ability to influence what comes next.”

The danger, according to experts, is not simply a stronger version of Maduro, but the rise of armed actors who already control parts of Venezuelan territory. Vigil said an uncontrolled collapse could unleash something far more dangerous than the current regime. “You could have someone potentially worse than Maduro,” she said.

Bolivarian National Police fire tear gas at opposition demonstrators in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, February 15, 2014. Venezuelan security forces, backed by water tanks and tear gas, dispersed groups of anti-government protesters who tried to block Caracas’ main road on Saturday evening. (AP Photo/Alejandro Cegarra)

“It is difficult to imagine that things will get any worse than they were under Nicolás Maduro. But what is crucial is that not only Maduro’s departure, but also the people around him – those who will only be more perpetrators of the injustices that Maduro highlights – that none of them should be allowed to come to power easily.”

If opposition leader María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fail to fill the vacuum in a post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a crowded field of dangerous actors who could try to seize power if Maduro suddenly falls.

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Diosdado Cabello

Diosdado Cabello emerges as the most feared and influential figure in the regime. La Nacion describes him as Chavismo’s number two, with far-reaching control over the party apparatus and the propaganda apparatus. His power extends from internal political enforcement to the Home Affairs and Justice portfolios.

Cabello was approved by the US Treasury Department in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and ties to intrastate drug trafficking networks. Reuters reported how the United States later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest, as part of broader efforts to target the Cartel de los Soles. Analysts say a government led by Cabello could consolidate party power, state security forces and media control under a single hardline.

Minister of the Interior and Justice Diosdado Cabello (C) talks with President of the National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez (L) as Vice President of Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez (R) looks on at Simon Bolivar International Airport on July 18, 2025 in Caracas, Venezuela. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

Jorge Rodriguez

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political actors, is another high-ranking figure positioned for any succession scenario. La Nación emphasizes his prominent position within the ruling elite and points to his role as mayor, Minister of Communications and key strategist.

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Rodríguez for actions that undermine democratic institutions, a US newspaper said Atlantic Council Summary of OFAC designations. Experts warn that Rodríguez could impose a more technocratic – but no less authoritarian – version of Chavismo, combining negotiating skills with control over electoral processes and state information systems.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez

Vladimir Padrino López, the Venezuelan Defense Minister, is portrayed by La Nación as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. Thanks to him, the armed forces remain loyal and form an axis of power between Padrino and Maduro.

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Padrino López as part of Maduro’s inner circle for perpetuating an authoritarian system and enabling repression. Observers warn that if Padrino were to assume leadership, Venezuela could shift to an even more militarized model — one in which political authority is openly fused with military command structures.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuelan Minister of Defense, speaks during a press conference accompanied by the Military High Command of the Ministry of Defense in Caracas, Venezuela, on Thursday, January 24, 2019. (Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Delcy Rodriguez

Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, has been described as a central political actor within the regime and part of a powerful governing duo with her brother Jorge. Its influence extends across institutional, economic and diplomatic domains. The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Rodríguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for helping to dismantle democratic rule, and the European Union is listing her for action over human rights abuses and the erosion of the rule of law.

Analysts note that Rodríguez has increasingly taken control of critical sectors, including the oil industry, putting her at the center of the opaque revenue structures that sustain the regime. A transition led by her could, they warn, further tighten state control over the economy and political apparatus.

Cilia Flores, wife of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, talks to the media during a simulation of the government’s official July 30 vote for a new parliament, in Caracas, Venezuela, July 16, 2017. Marco Bello/Reuters

Cilia Flores

Cilia Flores, the first lady and longtime Chavista power broker, completes the circle of figures identified by La Nación as essential to Maduro’s grip on power. Flores has held high positions, including chairman of the National Assembly, attorney general and member of the PSUV leadership.

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Flores in 2018 as part of broader actions targeting Maduro’s inner circle and their corruption networks, a move widely reported by Reuters. Her relatives have also faced sanctions or charges related to drug cases. Analysts say Flores’ political reach and influence within the party and legal system make her a crucial player in any succession reckoning.

In this April 13, 2019 file photo, General Ivan Hernandez Dala (L), head of both the Presidential Guard and Military Counterintelligence, and Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez (R), stand in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP)

Iván Hernández Dala

Hernández Dala heads Venezuela’s Military Counterintelligence Service (DGCIM) and commands the Presidential Guard, making him one of the most feared figures in the security apparatus. His control over internal repression gives him significant influence in any power struggle. He was designated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2019 for his involvement in gross human rights violations.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) wrote that under its command, “abuses allegedly carried out by the DGCIM and SEBIN included brutal beatings, suffocation, cutting the soles of feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.”

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Marczak and Vigil believe Washington’s next steps — and whether they spur negotiations or escalation — will determine whether Venezuela moves toward democracy or something even worse.

As Marczak put it: “A victory does not just mean that Nicolás Maduro leaves… A victory is in fact a transition to democratic forces.”