Even as anti-regime protests appeared to slow Friday, experts say there is a big part of the country that could help decide the country’s future, and that is Iran’s complex ethnic minority population, which makes up just under 50% of the population.
According to a new article written by Bradost, “Iran’s protests have spread across the provinces, despite skepticism and concern among ethnic groups,” she notes that 51% of the country is Persian, Azeris 24%, Kurds about 8% to 17% of the nation, and Arabs and Baluch minorities make up 3% and 2% of the population.
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In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP) (UGC via AP)
She wrote: “Iran is a country of about 93 million people whose modern state is built around a centralized national identity rather than ethnic pluralism.”
“The regime cannot survive anymore. The regime will fight to the last bullet if Khamenei is still alive,” she said.
Reports from several groups say the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the massacre of thousands of protesters – US-based human rights activists in Iran reported 2,571 deaths as a result of the protests, while leading Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi told Bret Baier’s Special Report on Monday that at least 12,000 people are dead.
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Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on January 9, 2026. (MAHSA / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
Pashaei, who won the Greco-Roman World Wrestling Championships for Iran and coached the country’s elite Greco-Roman team, added: “In addition to protest, ethnic minorities – especially the Kurds – are crucial in ensuring that one form of tyranny is not replaced by another. Kurdish political culture strongly favors democratic values, pluralism and women’s participation. Therefore, there is virtually no support among them for monarchy or lifelong rule.”
He noted that “in Syria and Iraq, the Kurdish-controlled areas were among the most stable after the collapse of dictatorships, and the Kurdish regions in Iran were likely to be among the most stable after the fall of the Islamic regime. Nevertheless, the Kurds continue to face discrimination both within Iran and within opposition politics, even as a democratic future can only be built through a broad, inclusive coalition.”
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He noted that the last major uprising began in those regions. “Once again, after the suppression of Tehran, the cities of Kurdistan became centers of revolt against the regime, and from Kurdistan the spirit of revolt has spread to Tehran and throughout Iran.”
The “Jina Uprising” he referred to was known as “The Women, Life, Freedom” movement that unfolded across Iran after the Islamic Republic’s morality police killed Mahsa (Jina) Amini, a young Iranian Kurdish woman, in September 2022 for not wearing her hijab properly.
Kani Sanani said: “The operations of our units in Kermanshah, Ilam, Lorestan and Bakhtiari against the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] forces have given great hope to the people and raised public morale. If the airspace of those regions were closed to the regime’s aircraft, our forces would quickly take control of all the cities in those provinces, and from there we would move with a force of 100,000 people to help the people of Tehran.”
In this photo taken by a non-Associated Press employee and obtained by the AP outside Iran, Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by vice police in Tehran on Oct. 1, 2022. (The associated press)
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He added that “Iran’s current centralized system fails to represent the will of its people. Over the past century, authoritarian rule and central state repression have resulted in the suffering and death of thousands – policies that the Iranian people have consistently rejected. In the current circumstances, we propose a democratic self-government alternative for all regions of Iran, especially for Kurdistan, that can adequately meet the needs of the Kurdish people.”
According to Moeini, “Iran’s future system of governance must be based on the broad participation and cooperation of all its peoples, thus laying the foundation for a truly sustainable and inclusive democracy.”
