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Some people have received excited over a graph claim to show central banks that have more gold than American treasury. Even ft contributing editor Mohamed El-Erian Recirculated it on LinkedIn.
Could this signal a bending point for the Post-Bretton Woods World?
We were initially skeptical about the truthfulness of the data. And when the smart clogs of Satori Insight Matt King could not reproduce it, our skeptic turbo was. So we thought we would look at it closer.
IMF Investments central banks Thrime And we can see from the Last release Of this report, King Dollar was $ 11.6 TN Global assigned FX reserves, $ 6.7 TN – 58 percent of the total. Case closed? No.
The IMF Cofer report breaks down currency tests, rather than allocations of activa class, and not all $ 6.7 will be in American treasury. We know that central banks also have many bonds and other US dollar debt agency. The number of $ 6.7 tn will record these other things even if it Exclusive dollar-mixed monetary gold.
The US Treasury International Capital Report Before the end of June shows that foreigners have $ 9.1 of American Treasury accounts and bonds, of which $ 3.9 tn thinks that foreign central banks.
So how do these figures relate to Gold Holdings of the Central Bank?
The IMF publishes the number of Troy -Counters held by central banks. And they also have a series for total reserves, including gold. By grabbing and multiplying the market price of gold, we are not shown to the 28 percent in the viral graph. But it gives us a gold share of 22 percent:
The TIC number of $ 3.92 TIC is still a larger number than the value of $ 3.86 TN of gold possession that we calculate at the end of June.
But since the end of June the gold price has set another 10.5 percent. The World Gold Council estimate Those central banks have continued to buy, but even if they don’t have it, price changes would cost the value of international reserves up to $ 4.2 tn.
We will not know whether the two lines will actually cross until October 17 – when the next official data is released. But unless reserve managers have bought a cool $ 200 billion from American treasury in July and August, it most likely looks.
How much does this really do? Probably not as much as some people want.
Firstly, it should be noted that the story of central banks that flee the Ministry of the Treasury flight is exaggerated. The intersection of these two lines is usually the result of the 38 percent jump in gold prices in 2025 – which is at least partially caused by central banks that buy precious metal.
Holdings van Gold from Central Bank in March 2009, and they have been added freely since then. We cannot detect acceleration in the official data, although it may say that something that increases competitive prices has not brought any further additions into a grinding stop.
Moreover, although the Treasury prices have been set in the past year, the value of the US government debt has still not been found to where it was five years ago before inflation started to destroy.
Here is a graph that shows the performance of an ETF that follows the long -term tires that form a good part of the central bank reserves.
In other words, this central bank mainly reserves the phenomenon about recent price action instead of a fundamental and dramatic shift from treasuries and in the yellow metal.
Secondly, it is important to remember that data from the central bank is a bit dubious, so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
When it comes to the TIC data, the American treasury is confronted with all kinds of problems that are attributed correctly, whereby foreign central banks seem to keep them increasingly through intermediary preservators such as Euroclear in Belgium and Clearstream in Luxembourg to mask directly ownership. So the number can be higher.
Cofer data is not much better, because it is mainly self-reported. Moreover, the debts of the agency should really be considered as the US government debt and the first graph would probably look very different. Although it is unlikely that it is responsible for the entire gap between $ 3.9 tn held in American treasury and $ 6.7 in American dollars.
Finally, some countries ~ Cough China Cough ~ Enjoy de facto foreign reserves far above what is publicly reported; It is simply instead in state banks, insurers and pension plans. And part of this will also be in treasuries.
Is there a reserve manager who moves from treasuries and in gold? Certainly. Fear of the economic policy of the Trump government now of course combines with long-term concerns about the weapons of the US dollar. But the underlying reality is not as dramatic as it looks like a graph.
Continue reading:
– Reserving judgment on the Gold Rally (FTAV)
– Gold catches up as Global Reserve Asset, says ECB (Mainft)
– Gold: ‘The Ultimate Percived Safe Haven Asset’? (FTAV)
