In midterm elections in which control of all or part of Congress shifts away from the president’s party, a common pattern emerges.
The party out of power grows stronger in the hypothetical midterm election vote as the year approaches Election Day.
A president is not on the midterm ballot, but his/her popularity and perception of how the country is doing play a role in how voters vote in midterm elections.
The perception of both Donald Trump’s performance and the current situation of the country is not good.
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A new Quinnipiac University survey revealed:
Thirty-eight percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 56 percent disapprove, essentially unchanged from the March 9, 2026 Quinnipiac University poll.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the economy, 38 percent of voters approve, while 58 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval for his handling of the economy matches the approval he received in the October 22, 2025 Quinnipiac University poll, and is the lowest approval for the economy he has ever received.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of foreign policy, 36 percent of voters approve, while 59 percent disapprove. In the March 9 Quinnipiac University poll, 40 percent approved of the proposal and 57 percent disapproved.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the Iran situation, 34 percent of voters approve, while 59 percent disapprove. In the March 9 Quinnipiac University poll, 38 percent approved of the proposal and 57 percent disapproved.
Depending on the issue, Trump’s numbers are matching his all-time lows or falling, which is sure to impact the overall mood in Congress.
You might think that if Democrats do well, it’s because their base is more motivated than Republicans.
However, this is what Quinnipiac discovered:
If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would want the Democratic Party to win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 40 percent would want the Republican Party to win control of the House of Representatives.
Among independents, 57 percent would like the Democratic Party to win control, while 26 percent would like the Republican Party to win control, while 17 percent express no opinion.
It is not the Democrats who are driving the blue wave, if it comes, but the Independents who have come to support the direction of the Democratic candidates.
If Democrats continue to grow or maintain this overall lead, history shows that they will very likely win back the House of Representatives. If the lead continues to grow, it will indicate increasing danger to Republicans in the House of Representatives, and it will also indicate that Republican Senate seats could also be in jeopardy.
The big takeaway from this data is that Independents give Democrats an even stronger position in the midterm elections.
What do you think? Are Democrats on track for mid-term victory? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
