Every election season gives us a preview before the main event. In the run-up to November 4 this year, it has become apparent that a Democratic Party is still searching for its identity.
In these smaller contests, Democrats are testing which kind of candidate still connects with voters: the loud and unfiltered progressives who dominate headlines or the grounded centrists who still tend to win the districts that decide power.
The rise of Zohran Mamdani in New York is an example of momentum. He had no support from the establishment or networks of major donors. What he had was energy that fills rooms and news cycles. For progressives, he has become proof that unapologetic politics can still move people.
Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for governor of New Jersey, and the socialist mayoral candidate of New York, Zohran Mamdani. (Getty Images)
But Mamdani’s call also underlines a tension that Democrats have not yet resolved. His message enthuses activists, but it is unclear whether that same energy reaches the national voters who quietly decide the elections. He represents a vote, not a majority, and that’s something Democrats need to deal with honestly.
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At the same time, two centrist Democrats, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, are facing their own trials. Both began their campaigns with strong leads over weak Republican opponents. Yet both have stumbled at important moments.
Sherrill had questions about her maritime record and her explanation of her own finances. Spanberger hesitated to take a clear stand during the Jay Jones texting scandal, attempting to balance loyalty and leadership at a time that required decisiveness. Election Day will say a lot about where voters’ patience lies, with authenticity that sometimes falls off script or with steadfastness that sometimes feels too cautious.
Gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, center, campaigns with Jay Jones, the Democrats’ nominee for attorney general, and Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, who is running for lieutenant governor, in Fairfax, Virginia, on June 26, 2025. (Maxine Wallace/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
These are not isolated matches; they are snapshots of the democratic dilemma.
Progressives like Mamdani bring urgency and passion. Centrists like Sherrill and Spanberger offer credibility and calm that the left often labels as boring. The real challenge is that the party views these qualities as mutually exclusive.
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The New York Times recently argued that moderation is not a refuge, but a strategy; that the political center is not empty, but contested. And Welcome PAC’s new memo makes an even stronger point: Democrats need to borrow the best of both worlds: progressive urgency and centrist confidence.
That’s not just a messaging problem, it’s a math problem. Elections are won by coalitions, not cliques.
There is data to support that. Research from Third Way shows that Democrats who win in competitive districts tend to fall in the ideological middle, not because voters like moderation for moderation’s sake, but because they reward balance.
The majority of swing voters are still persuadable; they may not tweet, but they vote. The same voters who are unmoved by slogans still respond to candidates who make moderation feel meaningful. This moment is proof that the party cannot afford to abandon either side of its coalition. Energy is important. This also applies to reach.
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The flip side of that equation is what happens when Democrats confuse charisma with character. In Maine, Graham Platner was supposed to be a rising star, a military veteran with a populist tone and a working-class story. Then came the Nazi tattoo scandal and the race imploded.
His campaign manager recently quit and backers like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., are having to explain their continued support. It reminds us that excitement without research is just noise. Voters may crave passion, but they still deserve integrity, and they notice when the party stops vetting in favor of viral candidates.
As we head into Election Day, this is the lesson Democrats cannot afford to miss. Progressives have proven that they can start a movement. Centrists have proven that they can hold their own.
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But winning in 2026 and 2028 will require more than either group acting separately. It will take Democrats who can speak to the voters who are clamoring for change, and who can quietly decide who the next administration will be.
Either way, November 4 will tell us what kind of Democrat America is still willing to believe in.
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