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Consumer confidence fell more than expected in November, reaching the lowest level since this spring, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
The Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in November, compared to an upwardly revised index of 95.5 in October.
That was well below the 93.4 that economists surveyed by LSEG had forecast for November, reaching the lowest level since April.
“Consumer responses to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increasing mentions of the federal government shutdown” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected in November. (Thomas Trutschel/Photothek via Getty Images)
“Mentions about the labor market decreased somewhat, but still stood out among all the other common themes not yet mentioned. The overall tone of entries in November was slightly more negative than in October,” said Peterson.
Consumer confidence almost fell all income levelsas consumers earning less than $15,000 were the only income group to see an improvement in confidence, even though they remained the least optimistic income group.
Confidence also fell across the board political groupswith the sharpest decline among independent voters. Among age groups, consumer confidence improved among those under 35 but fell among those above that threshold, and respondents aged 55 and over remained the most gloomy.
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The Conference Board’s Expectations Index has been below a recession indicator for ten months. (Joe Raedle)
The report shows that consumers expectations about inflation the following year it remained high in November, with the median rising to 4.8%.
For ten consecutive months, The Conference Board’s Expectations Index has been below 80, which is the threshold below which the gauge indicates a recession is ahead.
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Consumers were gloomy about inflation and prices. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November, with a notable increase in pessimism about business conditions six months from now.
The Present Situation Index also fell as consumers were pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions.
“The Consumer Confidence Index was much lower than expected in November, with Americans reporting the shutdown, prices, inflation, trade, tariffs and the political situation as factors in the decline,” said Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman. “This result is in line with our weaker expectations for consumer demand in the final quarter of the year.”
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Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said: “Despite the decline in official jobs data, weakening complementary data like this will put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in December and continue cutting in 2026.”
