KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: Last Christmas Eve, satellite tracking and ship transponder data revealed an unusual maritime event in the East China Sea: thousands of Chinese fishing vessels gathered into tight, linear formations and remained in position for extended periods. Two weeks later it happened again.
Analysts from a geospatial analytics company were the first to identify two large stationary formations, involving approximately 1,400 and 2,000 fishing vessels. Cargo ships in the area were forced to reroute or navigate carefully among thousands of stationary vessels that had ceased normal fishing operations. Analysts believe that this flotilla behavior by Chinese fishing boats was a ‘gray zone’ exercise.
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ingeniSPACE discovered large coordinated masses of fishing vessels like the one in this image in late December 2025, and on two other occasions so far this year. (ingeniSPACE)
“I think maybe Taiwan should stick to that mindset and mindset,” Liao said. “If these Chinese ships operate under clear military direction, their status under the laws of armed conflict could be subject to reassessment, potentially impacting claims of civilian immunity.”
Liao said Taiwan should consider deploying surveillance drones or air patrols over maritime militia formations to demonstrate presence and strengthen deterrence. “Taiwan has so far been very timid in response to the PRC’s aggression,” Liao said. “They may be fishing boats, but they are actually under the command of the PLA… and are part of the maritime militia.”
Several editions of the U.S. Department of Defense’s annual report “Military and Security Developments including the People’s Republic of China” describe the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) as a “state-organized, trained, and equipped” force that actively supports the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard.
Chinese tourists watch a fishing boat sailing through the Taiwan Strait, on the coast of Pingtan Island, the closest point in China to Taiwan, in southeast China’s Fujian province on April 16, 2023. (Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images)
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative have previously documented swarms of dozens or even hundreds of Chinese ships in the South China Sea near disputed reefs, often remaining stationary for long periods. But the incidents late last year and early this year highlight how the size of this fishing militia appears to be expanding.
Fishing vessels are cheap, numerous and legally ambiguous. When deployed en masse, they complicate navigation, create radar noise and increase operational risks for commercial shipping. The civilian status of these boats also allows Beijing to easily portray incidents as “rogue acts not approved by the authorities,” or as accidents.
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The United States often cites freedom of navigation as a reason for naval patrols in the Indo-Pacific, with a US State Department fact sheet noting that the region “accounts for 60% of global GDP.” The Taiwan area is already treated as a ‘higher risk environment’ by maritime insurers and shipping companies, meaning that even temporary fleet formations can influence shipping decisions and significantly impact both the regional and global economies.
However, Taipei-based security analyst Sasha Chhabra warned of the risks China would face if it deployed civilian fishing vessels in an active conflict. “A U.S. Navy convoy could easily break through these lines, and the large commercial ships carrying Taiwan’s much-needed imports would easily splinter most fishing vessels in a ramming incident.”
He noted that there is a precedent of Beijing using Chinese fishermen as “live bait” during a conflict. “In 1973, China used civilian fishing vessels to draw the South Vietnamese Navy into conflict and seize full control of the Paracels (islands),” Chhabra said. “But what worked against a reeling South Vietnam in 1973 will not work against the U.S. Navy.”
For independently ruled Taiwan, however, the concern could be a cumulative pressure rather than a single dramatic incident. Encounters between Taiwanese patrol vessels and Chinese fishing boats are becoming more common around remote islands and in parts of the Taiwan Strait, with vessels sometimes operating in coordinated groups that shadow or displace Taiwanese vessels. The maritime militia could also be used as a tool to discourage the global shipping industry from doing business with Taiwan.
Fishing boats are seen at a port on Pingtan Island, the closest point in China to Taiwan, in China’s southeastern Fujian province on April 15, 2023. (Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images)
Taiwan’s major ports are the energy and industrial lifelines for this de facto independent state. For example, the Port of Kaohsiung in the south handles large volumes of LNG imports and petrochemical shipments. Even a partial disruption or perceived instability of surrounding shipping lanes could ripple through supply chains and sharply increase costs to the global economy.
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Wang and other experts note that countries such as Japan and South Korea have been aggressively expanding their satellite spy constellations with commercial satellites for about a decade to “ensure sufficient coverage and increase the frequency of revisits, so that their leadership has the ability to distinguish between both overt military activities and gray zone activities.”
Analysts say the broader lesson is that maritime control is no longer solely dependent on destroyers and submarines. In the near future, the greatest maritime pressure may not come from warships, but from ships that at first glance look completely harmless.
