In his famous twentieth-century novel “The Sun Also Rises,” Ernest Hemingway’s character, Mike Campbell, was asked by a friend how his financial ruin happened. Campbell simply responded to the question, “In two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.’
If you take just a cursory glance at today’s headlines, you’ll see this idea of ”gradually then suddenly” playing out in the fiscal health of many blue states. California, the example of a state headed for financial ruin, is projected to lose four seats in Congress in the 2030 census due to population loss.
In addition, major companies like Wells Fargo and Quantum, and others are sure to follow, are moving their headquarters from the Golden State to Florida. Miami was even recently labeled the “new Silicon Valley” by a national outlet.
Two of the country’s other largest emigration states? Illinois and New York. Ken Griffin, the multi-billionaire who runs America’s largest and most successful hedge fund, Citadel Hedge Fund, left Chicago in 2022 and moved his headquarters to Florida. Meanwhile, both Illinois and New York will lose between two and four congressional seats by 2030 due to population loss.
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What’s going on here? In short, individuals and businesses have had enough of blue state taxes, wild spending, stifling regulations, and draconian environmental policies that stifle innovation and entrepreneurship. They move to red states like Florida and Texas, which value capital, markets, free exchange and opportunity. Florida and Texas are expected to gain four congressional seats in 2030.
By any measure—GDP growth, job creation, capital investment, employment rates, or the all-knowing U-Haul index of inflows and outflows—red states rank in the top 10 places to move, with purple states Arizona or Nevada occasionally slipping into the mix.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned California, Illinois, New York and many other blue states are at the bottom. Americans are fed up with the bloated government and nanny states that want to control every aspect of someone’s money and life. And those Americans vote with their feet.
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The left likes to say that warm weather and beaches are the reasons citizens move to red states, but that’s the opposite of the truth. The last time I checked, Utah, Idaho and Montana had neither warm weather nor beaches, and yet these states routinely rank in the top 10 of these indices.
What does all this tell us? Well, we saw this coming for a while. California has not gained a seat in Congress since 2000. Illinois and New York? Last century. Blue states have since seen their economies weaken and their populations slowly shrink, but politicians in those states refuse to acknowledge the reasons why.
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Now reality is sinking in, and with the loss of electoral votes comes the loss of political influence in Washington DC, let alone financial ruin.
Mike Campbell probably knew little about electoral politics, but he did know a thing or two about bankruptcies, and his recognition of the fact that this happens “gradually and then suddenly” is a cautionary tale for America. Blue states should take this into account.
