The emerging Gaza peace framework put in place by President Donald Trump could reshape regional dynamics, but analysts warn that unless Hamas is completely stripped of its weapons and power, it will mean little more than a lull for the terrorist group before the conflict flares up again.
Dr. Michael Milshtein, head of the Moshe Dayan Forum at Tel Aviv University and one of Israel’s leading experts on Hamas, says any plan that assumes the group will disband misunderstands its nature.
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File showing that a Hamas terrorist takes part in a military parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photo)
Milshtein said Hamas’s rhetoric about “freezing” weapons — rather than surrendering them — reveals its strategy. “They are willing to stop strengthening, but not to disarm. They will hand over the remnants of their missile infrastructure, but keep light weapons and explosives,” he said. “Hamas will remain in Gaza under any scenario – as a military and social force. The war may end, but Hamas remains.”
Ghaith al-Omari of the Washington Institute says the current optimism rests on extraordinary regional coordination. “Trump has great instincts when it comes to recognizing openings and opportunities,” he said. “He identified the moment and went for it.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the Cabinet meeting with US President’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on October 9, 2025. (Maayan Toaf / GPO)
Al-Omari said the convergence of different forms of pressure – the attack on Qatari soil is growing Golf anxiety about instabilityand fears that the conflict would spread have spurred Arab states into action. “They have enormous influence,” he said, “and this time they used it.”
One of the most important players, he emphasized, is Turkey. “Bringing in the Turks was crucial,” al-Omari explained. “Ankara had its own interests with Washington and moved quickly to become part of the equation.” He said Turkey’s influence over Hamas is both political and personal: the country hosts Hamas leaders, controls financial channels and provides an ideological model through the ruling AKP party. “They can say to Hamas: ‘Look at us – we started out illegally and unarmed, but we have learned to work within the political system. If you disarm, you can also become a political organization.’”
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That example, he said, could encourage Hamas to “play the long game – step back now, survive politically and wait for the Palestinian Authority to weaken.” But he warned that this approach does not amount to dismantling Hamas; it merely channels its ambitions into politics rather than open warfare.
Al-Omari is concerned about signs that Arab unity on disarmament is already faltering. “I am concerned when I hear the Egyptian Foreign Minister say that disarming Palestinian weapons is an internal issue,” he noted. “And Emirati officials have said they would only send troops to the Rafah border. That kind of derailment is dangerous.’
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, left, and US President Donald Trump during a roundtable discussion on Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, October 8, 2025. (Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
He said the decisive test will come after the first phase. “If Hamas does not disarm itself, we will not have to wait years,” he said. “Things could flare up again in a matter of weeks.”
Dubowitz dismissed hopes for voluntary compliance. “They will never give up willingly,” he said. “They must be expelled from Gaza and hunted down ruthlessly in the Gaza Strip by the IDF and whatever international security force is willing to take action.”
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Tamir Heiman, a former Israeli intelligence chief, described three possible scenarios once the hostages are released and the fighting subsides. At best, Hamas will help establish an alternative technocratic government, supported by international police forces. If the country refuses, Israel could still transfer limited security control to an international force “in separate sectors, gradually,” he said.
File showing that a Hamas terrorist takes part in a military parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photo)
The third scenario – and according to him the most likely – is that no foreign force intervenes. “The IDF would remain in areas along what we call the yellow line, operating as a security buffer similar to southern Lebanon,” Heiman said. Under that model, Israel maintains freedom of operation, while Hamas retains light weapons but is stripped of missiles and rocket factories. “It’s not peace,” he added, “but it’s managed security.”
All in all, the analysts paint a cautious picture. The Trump team has aligned regional interests and achieved rare cooperation among Arab capitals, they say, but maintaining that unity through disarmament and reconstruction will be the true measure of success.
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If Hamas continues to exist as a hybrid militia government, experts warn, the world will soon discover that the “peace” is merely a pause between rounds – a pause mistaken for an end.
