Ellie Cohanim, former deputy special envoy for the State Department, discusses ongoing talks between U.S. officials and Iran over its nuclear program on “The Bottom Line.”
Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the Iran conflict, roiling global energy markets and raising concerns that U.S. drivers could see further increases at the pump.
Analysts say consumers may not have felt the full impact yet because higher crude oil prices typically take weeks to feed through to gasoline prices. Even if oil stabilizes, pump prices could continue to rise in the short term.
“There is a slowdown and prices will continue to work their way through the system,” he said.
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Prices are seen at a gas station in downtown Brooklyn, New York, United States, on March 18, 2026. (Matthew Hoen/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $99.64 a barrel on Friday, remaining high after a volatile period linked to the conflict. Although prices were on track for their first weekly decline in more than a month, they remain sharply higher than pre-conflict levels.
The rally follows supply disruptions linked to US and Israeli attacks IranAnalysts estimate that around 10 to 11 million barrels per day have disappeared from global markets, reducing supply.
Gasoline prices are displayed at a mobile gas station on March 17, 2026, in the Kensington section of the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive the market. The US has extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial route for global oil shipments – while also considering additional military action. Prices could fall as the conflict subsides, but are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels, while a prolonged escalation could push prices higher.
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“Even with this supply shock, the increase has been relatively orderly, and it could have been much worse,” Flynn said.
But Mische noted that strong domestic production has helped soften the impact. “If we didn’t have current U.S. production levels, we would be in a real mess,” he said.
For consumers, gasoline prices have already started to rise, but further increases could be in store as the previous spike in crude oil continues to move through the system.
High gas prices are reported at the Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026, as gasoline prices rise amid the ongoing war with Iran. (Frederic J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
The national average price for regular gasoline was about $3.98 per gallon, about 6 cents more than a week ago and nearly $1 higher than a month ago, according to AAA. Data from GasBuddy shows a similar trend, with prices rising about 7 cents week over week and more than $1 in the past month.
That increase largely reflects past gains in the oil sector, and with retail fuel prices lagging crude oil moves, analysts expect additional upward pressure in the coming weeks.
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Seasonal factors also contribute. The transition to more expensive summer gasoline blends is underway, raising refining costs and potentially keeping pump prices high even as crude oil stabilizes.
“Prices are going up like rockets, and they’re going down like a feather,” Mische said.
Reuters contributed to this report.
