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The impact of people’s long-term illness following Covid-19 infections is estimated to cost OECD countries a total of as much as $135 billion per year and will haunt their economies for at least a decade, according to new research.
The expected impact on GDP from lower productivity, increased absenteeism or workers quitting work altogether will dwarf additional healthcare spending due to the disease, says the OECD study published on Wednesday.
The paper is a rare attempt to quantify the economic impact of the so-called long Covid-19 crisis, which is having a debilitating effect on patients but remains poorly understood scientifically and patchily monitored for data collection.
“This work is important because it provides for the first time a comprehensive estimate of the economic burden of long Covid-19 in EU and OECD countries,” said Guillaume Dedet, coordinator of the publication and senior health economist at the Paris-based organization.
“It shows that the costs of Covid-19 did not end with the acute phase of the pandemic: the virus will continue to weigh on societies and economies for years to come, and will continue to do so.”
The report predicts losses between 0.1 and 0.2 percent of GDP, amounting to a total loss of $135 billion per year across all OECD countries, in scenarios where “low or moderate” residual transmission of the coronavirus led to persistent new cases.
The economic consequences of the long Covid-19 virus are “substantial and arise mainly from the indirect costs of reduced productivity and labor force participation,” the report said. The forecasts are likely an underestimate of the actual burden, it added.
The OECD says the consequences are more serious because they exacerbate existing problems, including the slow growth and productivity of the aging workforce.
Economists have previously struggled to quantify the impact of the long Covid-19 crisis on employment and economic growth, as few countries continued to monitor people affected by the condition after the pandemic’s peak.
The OECD drew on new research evidence from the US showing continued increases in health-related absences and exits from the labor market, as well as academic studies from Britain, Australia and elsewhere.
According to the report, all available data from high-income countries gave a consistent message: “persistent symptoms following infection are not only a health challenge but also a structural drag on economic production.”
The OECD’s 38 member states include leading economies in Europe, the Americas and East Asia, although China is not a member.
While many countries have developed policies for long-term recognition and response to Covid-19, important gaps often remain, the report said. These include providing long-term care pathways for patients and training and supporting health professionals.
Government responses to the long Covid-19 crisis have often focused on the health sector, with limited coordination with employment, education and social protection policies, the paper said.
Long Covid – defined as a condition that lasts for at least three months after the initial viral infection – is estimated to have consequences 18 minutes adults in the US Patients report symptoms such as shortness of breath, fatigue and cognitive decline – brain fog – that lasts for months or years.
Scientists are still unsure why exactly some people suffer from long-term Covid-19 and how the condition should be treated. Research shows that the viral infection causes an increased risk immune response and chronic inflammation in long-term Covid patients, suggesting that dampening this could be a way to tackle the condition.
