There’s an interesting theory going around that one of the reasons why Donald Trump improved his standing among voters aged 18 to 34 in 2024 was that the youngest among that age group were not old enough to remember how bad the first Trump term was, and thus were susceptible to Trump’s campaign style of lies and promises that will never come true.
After getting the full Trump treatment for more than a year during his second administration, those voters have returned to Democrats in a big way.
Politics reported on a new survey of young voters from the nonpartisan Generation Lab:
This shows that young Americans plan to vote Democratic in November by a margin of 52 percent to 19 percent. Broken down by party, the data indicates that the Republican Party has a significant grassroots problem: Only 58 percent of young Republicans say they will vote for the Republican Party — while nearly a third opt for “neither” or “will not vote.” In contrast, 85 percent of young Democrats plan to vote for their party.
Just like in 2024, deep dissatisfaction with the state of the economy is causing anger among the party in power. Now, 81 percent of young Americans rate economic conditions in the U.S. as bad or terrible — including 68 percent of Republicans. The younger the age group, the more optimism decreases.
President Donald Trump leads the way, with 41 percent of voters who view the economy negatively calling him the biggest culprit, plus 9 percent who single out Republicans in Congress. But it’s not just about the Republican Party: another 31 percent point to corporate/big business greed. Only 6 percent blame Joe Biden or congressional Democrats.
Young voters aren’t buying the Trump administration’s Biden Derangement Syndrome.
What is very interesting is who young voters may support for the presidency in 2028.
Kamala Harris leads all candidates polled with 22%. In second place is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with 15%. Vice President JD Vance is third with 8%. In fourth place there is a 5% tie between Pete Buttigieg, RFK Jr. and Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA).
Only among young Republicans does JD Vance lead RFK Jr. by 25% to 13%. Kamala Harris is in third place among young Republicans with 11%.
Kamala Harris’ status could be a real boost, but so could the name recognition of her 2024 campaign. I guess we’ll see.
What is clear is that candidates like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, who could appeal to older Democrats, may struggle to gain support among young people.
JD Vance seems dead in the water with the youth vote, and the damage Trump is doing to this group of voters could be catastrophic for Republicans in 2026 and impossible to overcome in 2028.
What do you think? Are younger voters firmly back in the Democratic camp? Let’s talk about it in the comments below.
