A prolonged delay in the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signals a deepening crisis within the Islamic Republic, a prominent Iranian strategist said.
Dr. Ramesh Sepehrrad’s comments came as peace talks between the United States and Iran stalled and internal tensions raised questions about the regime’s stability.
On April 9, 40 days of mourning ceremonies for Khamenei began in Iran, with authorities withholding information about his funeral for more than 40 days after his assassination. A three-day state funeral, scheduled for early March 2026, had already been postponed.
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Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader and second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, on October 13, 2024. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)
“That is an indicator of the fear within this regime from top to bottom,” Sepehrrad added, before describing how, usually, “a religious regime believes that their dead should be buried within 24 hours.”
Khamenei was killed on February 28 in an attack on a regime complex in central Tehran. A separate attack hit his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, who succeeded him.
Mojtaba is said to be still recovering from serious injuries to his face and legs, three people close to him said Reuters on April 11.
Khamenei’s face was disfigured during the attack on the supreme leader’s compound in central Tehran, and he suffered a significant injury to one or both legs, three sources told the newspaper.
“The 56-year-old is nevertheless recovering from his wounds and remains mentally sharp, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.”
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary, and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of Iran’s Interim Leadership Council at an undisclosed location, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Iran, March 1, 2026. (IRIB/WANA/Handout/Reuters)
He participates in meetings with senior officials via audio conferences and is involved in decision-making on key issues, including the war and negotiations with Washington, two of the sources said, according to reports.
The report came as Iran carried out diplomatic efforts with the US in Islamabad aimed at easing tensions during a two-week ceasefire that ultimately failed to lead to a breakthrough.
“Mojtaba has input into the broad red lines of the negotiations, even if he is not the public face,” Sepehrrad claimed. “He ultimately served as his father’s right-hand man and conduit for the IRGC for more than a decade.”
“Mojtaba may be less rhetorical, less publicly ideological and more operational, because his primary focus is the survival of the regime.”
Iran also confirmed on Sunday that it has no plans for further peace talks after the marathon summit, which Pakistan mediated.
“No plan has yet been announced for the time, place or next round of negotiations,” Iran’s state news agency Nour reported on Saturday, citing the country’s Supreme National Security Council, without a statement from the new Supreme Leader.
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A mourner holds a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (above-L) on March 5, 2026, during a funeral procession for members of the Iraqi pro-Iranian paramilitary group Hezbollah Brigades (Kataeb Hezbollah) who were killed in an attack in Baghdad the day before. The Tehran-backed Iraqi group Kataeb Hezbollah said on March 5 that one of its commanders had been killed in an attack in southern Iraq the day before. (Ahmed Al-Rubaye/AFP)
“Mojtaba is not so much the supreme leader in the traditional sense of the word, but more the coordinator of a security-led system,” Sepehrrad explained before describing him as “more of a security-backed coordinator.”
“This regime does not communicate with one unified voice. It communicates by position,” Sepehrrad said.
“One channel negotiates, another threatens, another punishes and another tries to maintain ideological continuity. It is now a mafia,” the strategist claimed.
“The main point is not harmony, but division of labor. What keeps them together is the survival of the regime, not trust.”
“What we see now goes deeper: a leader who has no organic authority and therefore rules through the institution that controls the violence,” Sepehrrad said.
On the Iranian side, the analyst said, the negotiations also included “diplomats,” but a broader circle of security-related figures shaped Tehran’s stance, reflecting the increasing dominance of hardline institutions.
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Army Chief Field Marshal General Asim Munir upon their arrival at Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on April 11, 2026. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs/AP)
“This was a fragile coalition of security people,” Sepehrrad said, before describing how Mojtaba “is at the top but heavily dependent on the Guard, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, SNSC chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, judiciary chief Mohseni-Ejei and law enforcement chief Ahmad-Reza Radan.”
“Several of the most important surviving figures are not primarily diplomats,” Sepehrrad said, before suggesting that this “should change the way we read everything coming out of Tehran.”
“That is a different system than the one that many Western analysts still think they are dealing with,” Sepehrrad explains. “Double track: tactical flexibility in the talks and tougher repression at home.”
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“While the regime negotiates to buy time, reduce pressure on its forces and prevent broader external escalation, it is now likely to intensify arrests, executions, intimidation and internet surveillance internally,” the strategist warned.
“The regime fears more internal unrest than diplomacy,” Sepehrrad said.
