Inflation and growth will dominate the IMF and World Bank meetings

Hello and welcome to the work week.

We’re moving from body armor to gray suits. As political leaders debate a ceasefire in the Middle East, central bankers and policymakers are heading to Washington for the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF, where the debate will focus on how to tackle the oil price surge, shipping blockades and other disruptions caused by the conflict.

World Bank President Ajay Banga said in his briefing last week that he expected the war to lead to “some degree of higher inflation and some degree of lower growth” across the global economy, in addition to a humanitarian crisis in countries “directly affected by the conflict.”

The IMF has warned that emerging markets are much more vulnerable to global shocks such as the war in Iran, due to their increased reliance on “volatile” sources of capital such as hedge funds in recent years.

The Trump administration is also in for a rough ride. Before the war began, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva launched her own attack on the US president’s economic policies, especially the tariff blitz, warning that the role of the country’s statisticians, regulators and tax collectors must be respected.

Many leading central bank governors will speak, including Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England. Details below.

Other data releases will highlight the impact of the war with Iran on rich and large countries, including inflation rates for European countries. China’s first-quarter GDP estimate is expected to show little disruption to exports from the conflict in the Middle East and growth is likely to be significantly better than the UK’s monthly GDP estimate on Thursday, which could turn it into a positive figure.

One date is set for a ceasefire in the Middle East, on Tuesday, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved direct negotiations with Lebanon under pressure from US President Donald Trump.

The talks in Washington would be the first in decades. The Israeli delegation will be led by Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, although Ron Dermer, an adviser to Netanyahu, is expected to play a prominent role behind the scenes. US Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa will take charge on behalf of the Trump administration. For further updates on the conflict in the Middle East, click here.

War has been good for Wall Street financiers. This will be reflected by the five largest US banks – JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi Group And Bank of America – which will start the earnings season with one of the best trading quarters ever, after benefiting from volatile financial markets due to the conflict, President Donald Trump’s regime change in Venezuela, plus uncertainty about the path of interest rates. According to Bloomberg forecasts, trading revenues are expected to exceed $40 billion this time, partly because this quarter is traditionally strong for the major investment banks.

Goldman Sachs reports first on Monday, followed a day later by JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America complete the group on Wednesday. Investors will be asking questions about exposure to non-bank lenders following the wave of redemptions in private credit funds, fueled by concerns about credit quality across the asset class. My colleague, US banking correspondent Akila Quinio, has more details.

Market leaders in other key sectors will also present earnings data, including the British supermarket group Tescowhich gives an idea of ​​the cost of living on the UK high street, and streamer Netflixwhose executives will likely repeat (like a jilted lover in a TV drama) why it was smart to cancel the deal with Warner Bros Discovery.

One more thing. . .

Thank you for all the suggestions for anniversary trips in the Algarve, which made the planning process for my wife and me a lot more fun and fruitful. Saturday is Record Store Day, which gives me the chance to plug one of my favorite FT Weekend sections, Life of a Song. Maybe I should have asked for a holiday soundtrack.

Keep up the good work with your suggestions, especially upcoming events. Email me at [email protected] or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, click reply. Have a nice week.

Major economic and business reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of business reports and economic data.

Monday

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech at the 101st Trust Conference

• Nicholas Fink becomes Constellation brands president and CEO, succeeding Bill Newlands who is stepping down

• OPEC monthly oil market report

• Japan: March money stock figures

• UK: KPMG/REC report on jobs

• Earnings Calls: Goldman Sachs Q1

Tuesday

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is a panelist at an event at Columbia University in New York

• Bank of England Megan Greene, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, participates in a fireside chat during IMF-World Bank Week during the Atlantic Council series of events

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat during the Bretton Woods Commission Spring Summit 2026 in Washington

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Semafor World Economy event in Washington

• Monthly oil market report from the IEA

• IMF World Economic Outlook

• China: March trade data

• EU: Long-term interest rate statistics from March

• India: Ambedkar Jayanti. Financial markets closed

• Singapore: interest rate announcement

• Spain: March consumer price index (CPI) inflation data

• UK: British Retail Consortium March Retail Sales Monitor

• US: March Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data

• Earnings Calls: AB Dynamics HE, BlackRock Q1, BMW First quarter trading update, Citi Group Q1, Johnson & Johnson Q1, JPMorgan Chase Q1, Kering First quarter turnover, Wells Fargo Q1

Wednesday

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at The Economic Magic of Equal Opportunity for Women conference in Washington.

• IMF Budget Monitor

• France: Insee March CPI inflation data

• Israel: March CPI inflation data

• UK: Treasury forecasts for the UK economy

• USA: Beige book

• US: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and US Federal Reserve Vice President Michelle Bowman is among the speakers at the IIF Global Outlook Forum, held in Washington alongside the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

• Earnings Calls: ASML Q1, Bank of America Q1, Barrat Redrow Third quarter trade update, Hermès first quarter turnover, Morgan Stanley Q1, PNC bank Q1, Rank Third quarter trading statement, Saga FJ

Thursday

• Australia: March labor force figures

• China: First quarter GDP estimate

• EU: Seasonally adjusted Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data in March

• Italy: March CPI inflation data

• UK: February GDP estimate, trade figures, services index and manufacturing index

• Earnings Calls: Abbott Laboratories Q1, Alcoa Q1, Bosch For your information, BNY Q1, Charles Schwab spring business update, Dunelm Third quarter trading update, Marsh & McLennan Q1, Mitie FY trading update, Netflix Q1, PepsiCo Q1, Prologis Q1, Tesco For your information, TSMC Q1

Friday

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the CDI Citadel Directors Institute 2026, hosted by the Tommy and Victoria Baker School of Business in Charleston.

• EU: February Eurozone current account and trade balance data

• UK: March insolvency figures

• Earnings Calls: Ericsson Q1, State Street Q1

World events

Finally, here’s an overview of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Algeria: Pope Leo XIV begins an eleven-day apostolic journey through Africa, starting with a three-day visit to Algeria

• Israel: Holocaust Remembrance Day

• US: Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank begin in Washington

Tuesday

• Hong Kong: HSBC Global Investment Summit. Speakers include HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery, Hong Kong CEO John Lee, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, London Stock Exchange CEO Dame Julia Hoggett and Legal & General Group CEO António Simões

• US: Israel and Lebanon hold ceasefire talks in Washington

Wednesday

• North Korea: Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader, Kim Il Sung

• US: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gives a press conference on the global policy agenda as part of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings

Thursday

• UK: Covid-19 research report on vaccines and therapeutics published

• USA: Meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, followed by a press conference

Friday

• UK: 75th anniversary of the Peak District becoming Britain’s first national park

• USA: Plenary meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee during the spring meetings in Washington, followed by a press conference with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. In addition, President Donald Trump will speak at an event at Dream City Church in Phoenix, according to the event’s sponsor, Turning Point USA

Saturday

• Record Store Day, 19th annual international celebration of independent record stores, featuring in-store shows and exclusive artist releases

• 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundation for what would become the EU

Sunday