We now face a defining question: not whether this conflict is difficult, but whether the West has the discipline to bring it to the right outcome.
That is the backdrop to this weekend’s negotiations in Islamabad, where Pakistan is hosting talks between the US and Iran amid a fragile ceasefire and lingering tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The talks will show whether Tehran is willing to withdraw from the confrontation or is merely trying to buy time.
WHY TRUMP AND IRAN APPEAR LIGHT YEARS AWAY FROM ANY POSSIBLE AGREEMENT TO END THE WAR
One thing President Trump must do immediately is announce that we, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will work together to build pipelines at warp speed that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Astute energy and technology expert Mark P. Mills lays out this idea in an article found at city-journal.org, noting that such pipelines could be constructed within months.
As for the question of what Iran’s real motives are, this is a false question. After 47 years of its existence, we should already know the answer: this murderous, terrorist regime is inexorably linked to its ugly, radical, deformed version of Islam. It’s disgustingly corrupt, which makes its pious attitude even more sickening. But make no mistake: the country is not wavering in its goal to impose its ugly ideology on the Arab Middle East, eradicate Israel and ultimately bend the US and Europe to their will. It all sounds completely delusional, leading all too many people to think that these are essentially people who can’t really be that perverse and that they can be coaxed into practical agreements that would so clearly materially benefit Iran.
This fallacious reasoning is that after the massive storms Iran has suffered and the elimination of virtually its entire top echelon of leaders, surviving officials must realize the error of the regime’s actions and consider making a deal with the US. You can see our negotiators begging the mullahs to imagine all those new hotel towers that Tehran could have and perhaps the tolls (to be shared with us) that the government could collect from ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz if the regime gives up all its enriched uranium, abandons all nuclear ambitions, cuts off aid to its terrorist proxies like Hezbollah, and promises never to produce increasingly lethal drones and missiles with ever-increasing range. And maybe Iran will get a special, low rate as a bonus!
Happy days have arrived again!
IRAN’S OTHER WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL BREAK THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Dream on.
These leopards do not change their stripes. They smell victory. Despite the military hammering, they believe they have a powerful trump card with the ability to cut off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Other assets they believe they possess include the ability to seriously damage oil facilities in neighboring countries, thanks to precision intelligence from Russia and China. They know the government’s enormous sensitivities to higher gasoline prices due to the upcoming midterm elections. They are well aware of Asia’s enormous dependence on oil delivered through the Strait of Hormuz and how shortages and high prices due to the war are hitting their economies. And they are cheerfully aware of the unpopularity of the war in many European countries.
Whatever happens this weekend and whatever President Trump threatens, Tehran is confident that its regime will survive. Survival would be seen as a huge victory given the scale of airstrikes from the US and Israel. The regime’s survival will be viewed by the rest of the world as a huge, historic, strategic defeat for the US. Our credibility will be blown to smithereens, with deadly future consequences for China, Russia and North Korea.
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The West has too often obscured the reality: Iran’s ruling theocracy is not simply another hostile regime. Her ambitions are frightening for the survival of the civilized world. This is no time for illusions. Iran’s rulers have long benefited from the West’s preference for delay, ambiguity and half-measures. Ceasefires can quiet the headlines. Diplomatic communiqués can give the appearance of progress. A limited understanding can buy time. But that doesn’t change the underlying truth: A pause that gives Tehran meaningful leverage is not a settlement. It’s a postponement. There will be major problems, the likes of which the world has not experienced since the 1930s, prior to World War II.
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Given the scale of the stakes involved, the future direction for the US is clear. Give up the fantasy that Iran is willing to surrender on the essentials. We must gird ourselves to resume hostilities. Let the Pentagon and Israel complete their intended goals, which could take several weeks. Cut off oil shipments from Iran to the rest of the world, primarily China. And build those pipelines!
An impending defeat can still be turned into a resounding victory for the Free World.
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