President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran may be seeking a ceasefire, but analysts say the real power lies with hardline figures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including new prominent commander Ahmad Vahidi.
Trump did not name the Iranian figure he was referring to, but his comment likely referred to President Masoud Pezeshkian, who wrote: “The president of Iran’s new regime, far less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a ceasefire! We will think about it when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free and safe. Until then, we will blow Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Age!!!”
However, experts warn that the Iranian president has no control over decisions on war and peace.
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Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi speaks during a press conference after the parliamentary elections in Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Instead, analysts say the real power lies with senior figures linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and security official Mohammad Zolghadr, all of whom operate within overlapping centers of influence.
Attention shifts to the new terror chief seen as an extremist pulling the strings, Vahidi – a longtime commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose re-emergence highlights a broader shift underway within Iran’s leadership.
Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, warned that even if Iran shows interest in a “ceasefire,” it may not reflect the Western understanding of the term.
He pointed to the concept of ‘hudna’, describing it as ‘a ceasefire with deception – they stop when they are weak, rebuild their strength and then attack again, whether it is against Israel or the United States’.
Sabti added that such pauses could become “a cycle of violence that has no end,” driven by ideological motivations, and should not be interpreted as a real end to hostilities.
Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Esmail Qaani, and Iraj Masjedi, deputy coordinator of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, participate in a ceremony in memory of former IRGC commander Hossein Salami, who was killed in Israeli attacks on a mosque in an IRGC organization house complex in Tehran, Iran, on July 25, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)
From secret operations to global attacks
At the center of that uncertainty is Vahidi, the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Sabti described Vahidi as part of an early cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties with militant groups in Lebanon before and after the 1979 revolution, relationships that later became central to Iran’s regional strategy. Some accounts suggest that Vahidi was trained in camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions in southern Lebanon, laying the foundation for Iran’s long-standing alliance with the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf looks on as parliamentarians sing in support of the IRGC while wearing military uniforms in Tehran, Iran, February 1, 2026. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Assembly news agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
Vahidi rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and became commander of the elite Quds Force, a unit responsible for overseas operations, in the 1990s.
He has been linked to some of the deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
Sabti said Vahidi was also accused of cultivating ties with Al Qaeda figures after the September 11 attacks, reflecting what he described as Iran’s willingness to work with groups that target Western and Israeli interests.
Despite later holding positions that seemed political or bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi never really distanced himself from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s powerful military and intelligence arm, meaning his role remained closely tied to the regime’s security and operational apparatus.
“He always remained part of the Revolutionary Guards – he even wore a uniform,” he said. “That is common in Iran. Even if they enter politics, they remain within the force.”
Sabti also pointed to Vahidi’s alleged role in suppressing Kurdish uprisings in northwestern Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his long involvement in internal security operations.
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A composite image shows several Iranian leaders named in the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program offering up to $10 million for information on key figures linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, above left. (Ministry of State / Rewards for Justice; Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
A system driven by power, not position
Vahidi’s newfound prominence comes as Iran’s internal structure appears increasingly fragmented, with authority concentrated in overlapping and sometimes competing networks.
“It is not clear how coordinated the military or political actions of the government of the Islamic Republic are today,” Ben Taleblu said.
He described Iran as “a system of people, not a system of laws,” where personal ties and informal influence often outweigh formal titles.
That dynamic has intensified as the war continues.
“We see IRGC predominance… in many Iranian political and security institutions,” he said.
“This IRGC ascendancy will mean a cruder Islamic Republic, but it comes at a time when this regime is less militarily capable than ever before,” he added.
More power, less restraint
Sabti said Vahidi may now be more influential than other prominent figures in Tehran, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.
“In my opinion, he is more dominant at the moment, even though they are coordinated. This is not a time for internal competition,” Sabti said.
He warned that Vahidi’s rise could further harden Iran’s stance.
“He is bringing even more radicalization into the system and may not want to stop the war because it serves the interests of the Revolutionary Guards to continue,” Sabti said.
“They could become masters of the region if the United States goes bankrupt – and that is very much in his interest.”
Trump’s suggestion that Iran pursue a ceasefire has raised hopes of a possible diplomatic opening, but experts warn such signals may not reflect unity within Iran.
“The question is what was really shared with President Trump, or is it a matter of just one ambitious person?” said Ben Taleblu.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a press conference in Tehran, Iran, September 16, 2024. (WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)
“Pezeshkian clearly does not have the authority to incite or avert a major military conflict with the United States,” Ben Taleblu said.
This leaves open the possibility that any form of assistance can be tactical, fragmented or even contradictory.
