The Iranian military is not designed to win a conventional war against the United States or Israel. It’s designed to survive one, absorb damage and keep fighting over time, experts say.
That strategy is reflected in the way the force is built and in the way it is performing now, after weeks of sustained American and Israeli attacks.
The scale of the campaign was considerable. According to a March 23, 2026, US Central Command fact sheet, more than 9,000 targets have been hit since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, in addition to more than 9,000 combat sorties that hit missile sites, air defenses, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command centers and weapons production facilities.
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Iran’s military is not designed to win a conventional war against the United States or Israel: it is designed to survive one, experts say. (Iranian military/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/handout via Reuters)
U.S. officials say the goal is clear.
“We are targeting and eliminating Iran’s ballistic missile systems…we are destroying the Iranian Navy…and ensuring that Iran cannot rebuild quickly,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said at a Pentagon briefing in March.
But analysts warn the picture is more complex.
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The core of Iran’s military system consists of a deliberate dual structure: the conventional army, known as the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Handout via Reuters)
A ‘dual army’ built to protect the regime
At the core of Iran’s military system is a deliberate dual structure: the conventional army, known as the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a parallel force created after the 1979 revolution to protect the regime.
According to Carl, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has spent decades shaping the armed forces around one central objective: preserving the Islamic Republic and exporting its revolutionary ideology.
Carl describes the Islamic Revolutionary Guards as a “deeply ideological praetorian guard,” while the Artesh remains a more conventional force charged with defending Iran’s borders.
But the distinction is not absolute.
“The IRGC is probably the more dangerous of the two, but we cannot discount the threat that the regular army also poses,” Carl said.
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A large banner with the image of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, in 2024. (Photo by Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Missiles remain Iran’s most powerful weapon
Iran’s missile program remains the backbone of its military power, even after extensive attacks.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Forces has spent years building what Carl describes as the largest missile inventory in the Middle East.
U.S. officials say these capabilities have been significantly reduced by recent strikes.
“Iran’s ballistic missile shots are down 86% from the first day of combat,” Caine said in a Pentagon briefing earlier in March, adding that drone launches are down about 73%.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in the same briefing that the campaign has severely limited Iran’s ability to sustain attacks.
“The enemy can no longer fire the number of missiles they once did, even at close range,” he said.
But even U.S. officials acknowledge the threat remains.
“Iran will still be able to fire some missiles … and launch drones for one-way attacks,” Hegseth said.
Carl said the decline in fires has stabilized.
“Iranian missile and drone fire has fallen dramatically… by about 90% since the start of the war… but that number has been consistent for weeks,” he said. “That means they still maintain sufficient capacity to sustain attacks across the region.”
Citrinowicz offered a similar assessment.
“They have taken a beating, but they still have the ability and capacity to launch missiles for weeks to come,” he said.
US estimates cited by Carl suggest that roughly a third of Iran’s missile capabilities remain active.
“The regime still maintains a significant capability to threaten targets across the region … especially as it demonstrates the ability to fire beyond 2,000 kilometers,” Carl said.
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Iranian Revolutionary Guards naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed by the Israelis on March 26, 2026, during an exhibition in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, in 2024. (Office of the Iranian Presidency via AP)
A navy built to disrupt global trade
The Pentagon says it has made major gains against Iran’s naval forces.
According to the US Central Command, more than 140 Iranian ships have been damaged or destroyed.
Caine said U.S. forces have “effectively neutralized” Iran’s main naval presence in the region.
But analysts warn that the Iranian naval threat has never relied on big ships.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy is built around “area denial capabilities,” including fast attack craft, mines, missiles and drones designed to swarm adversaries and disrupt maritime movements.
“They still have the capability – speedboats, drones, surface-to-sea missiles – that will allow them to block the Strait of Hormuz,” Citrinowicz said.
Carl warned against a common misconception.
“It is not technically correct to say that the Strait of Hormuz is closed … Iran is selectively denying access … by firing at some ships while allowing others to pass,” he said.
“Iran needs to do very, very little to achieve a meaningful effect.”
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This handout image, obtained on February 7, 2023, shows a fighter plane at the first underground air base, called “Eagle 44”, at an undisclosed location in Iran. (West Asia News Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
Air superiority, but not total control
U.S. officials say the campaign has made great progress in the air.
“We will have full control of Iranian airspace and uncontested airspace,” Hegseth said.
Caine added that US forces have already established “localized air superiority” and are expanding their operations deeper into Iranian territory.
But Iran’s air force was never the center of its strategy. Years of sanctions have left the country dependent on outdated aircraft and limited modernization, making it far less capable than its Western or regional opponents.
“There is certainly a setback… but Iran was never built on an air force,” Citrinowicz said.
Instead, Iran relies on missiles, drones and layered defense systems.
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On the ground, Iran retains a key advantage: its forces are largely not directly involved. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)
The ground forces remain largely intact
On the ground, Iran retains a key advantage: its forces are largely not directly involved.
According to Carl’s report, the Artesh ground forces, which include dozens of brigades, are primarily positioned to defend Iran’s borders.
“The ground forces are still intact, no one has invaded Iran,” Citrinowicz said.
He noted that ground forces are increasingly launching drones, signaling a broader shift in the way Iran fights.
The proxy network extends Iran’s reach
Beyond its borders, Iran’s military power is expanded through a network of proxy forces operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.
Carl said the Quds Force provides “leadership, equipment, intelligence, training and funds” to allied militias in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
“The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is the central mechanism through which Iran can further regionalize the conflict… to endanger the interests of as many actors as possible,” Carl said.
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Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade during a ceremony marking the country’s annual Army Day, April 17, 2024, in Tehran, Iran. (Getty Images)
Built to survive, not win
Iran’s military is also designed to deal with internal threats, reinforcing its core purpose: regime survival.
The result is a force built on redundancy, asymmetry and endurance.
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Even after weeks of sustained attacks, Iran retains sufficient capacity to continue launching missiles, harassing global shipping, and deploying proxy forces across the region.
It may have been weakened, but it remains strategically dangerous.
“We cannot discount the threat posed by the Iranian military,” Carl said. “It remains a force capable of threatening regional and international security.”
