Florida has gone from the “hanging Chad” swing state that made George W. Bush president in the 2000 election to a reliably red state that is only second to Texas in need and value to Republicans.
Democrats went through a period during the Obama years when they thought they could bring Florida back into their column, but for a variety of reasons, not limited to voter suppression and gerrymandering, Republicans have consolidated their grip on power in the Sunshine State.
The big driver behind the Democratic victories in Florida was not the increase in Democratic turnout among the base. Republicans have a registration advantage of 1.5 million voters in the state and are better funded.
Democrats have won the special election in Florida since Trump returned to office as Hispanic voters, especially Puerto Rican voters, have returned to Democrats after switching to Trump in 2024.
The biggest factor is the independents. In Florida, Democrats’ overperformance in the special election was made possible by independents.
Trump and his party have seen their support among independents collapse, and those independents are showing their dissatisfaction with the direction of the country by voting for Democratic candidates.
All of this means Democrats have an opening to attack several vulnerable Republicans in the Florida House of Representatives, and it appears they won’t let this pass them by.
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