“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said at the White House on Tuesday, describing what he described as both chaos and opportunity within Iran’s leadership. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they really want to make a deal.”
His comments come as the US claims it is in talks with a top Iranian figure, while Tehran publicly denies any negotiations are taking place.
The question now is not just whether talks are taking place, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver results. With US and Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal rifts, Iran appears to be operating less as a centralized theocracy and more as a war system run by overlapping centers of power, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
Here’s who matters now.
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A State Department poster offers up to $10 million for information on key leaders linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Asghar Hejazi, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ali Larijani, Eskandar Momeni and Esmail Khatib. (Foreign Affairs / Rewards for Justice)
The IRGC: the real power behind the state
Intelligence assessments and recent reporting show that one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in The Iranian political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C., think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend.
“Undoubtedly, both the Twelve-Day War and this current conflict have shortened the highest positions of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said. “But it has also accelerated the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, namely the dominance of the security forces and the rise of the IRGC.”
“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security state than ever before,” he said.
“It should not particularly concern Washington, which offers and does not offer negotiations,” Ben Taleblu added. “Washington’s main concern should be to seek military victory over political victory, and that will happen not by working with the IRGC, but by actually defeating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces most aligned against them in Iran, namely the Iranian people.”
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps soldiers walk along Enghelab (Revolution) Avenue as an Iranian Kheibar surface-to-surface missile is unveiled during a military meeting in Tehran, Iran, November 24, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The command room: Supreme National Security Council
If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.
The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s main forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was founded after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to war operations.
Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as secretary of the council, strengthening his central role in the council. military and political coordination decisions, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
An official Middle Eastern source with knowledge of the system described its structure.
“Right now, power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council obviously makes decisions with the support of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
A mourner holds a poster showing Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, his late father’s successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/The Associated Press)
Mojtaba Khamenei: The supreme leader in name
Formally, the Iranian system is turning around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his real grip on power remains uncertain.
Khamenei inherited the position He was given far-reaching authority after his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority his father enjoyed,” the Middle East official said.
Moreover, he has not appeared in public since taking power and has only issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after he was reportedly injured in the initial US-Israeli attacks on February 28 that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.
Brig. General (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested that his role may currently be limited: “For now, since Mojtaba was injuredIt appears he is a hologram and has no power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in governing Iran. He’s not just a figurehead. But anyway, for now, control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guard.”
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Ghalibaf: The man at the center of Trump’s claim
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a public event in Iran in 2024. (Hossein Beris / Images from the Middle East / Images from the Middle East via AFP)
Trump’s declaration that he is speaking to a “top person” has drawn attention to one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.
Ghalibaf, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and current speaker of parliament, represents a hybrid figure within the system, bridging the gap between military credentials and political authority.
He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.
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Ghalibaf is expected to meet with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner the capital of Pakistan already at the end of the week.
Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see that the descendants of someone like Ghalibaf, who is a veteran of the IRGC, have expanded power beyond his traditional civilian government have missed the decades of how personality, not profession, has been the driving force in Iranian politics in recent decades. I would also say that those who are concerned about the IRGC background of the Supreme National Security Council, which is the only one in Iran today, may have missed the fact that the past few secretaries of the Supreme National Security Council Security Council, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, they all had IRGC backgrounds too.”
At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied holding talks with the United States, and no direct confirmation of the negotiations has been given by either side.
Araghchi: The diplomat who delivers messages
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a joint press conference with the Russian Foreign Minister after their talks in Moscow on April 18, 2025. (Getty Images)
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.
If conversations were to take placeAraghchi would likely be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.
But analysts warn his role is limited. He may function as a communication channel, but does not independently determine policy.
Strategic decisions, especially in the areas of war and negotiations, continue to be shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary, and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of Iran’s Interim Leadership Council at an undisclosed location, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, March 1, 2026. (IRIB/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/handout via Reuters)
The broader circle of power: generals, clerics, and enforcers
Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials can be identified who continue to shape Iran’s course.
These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior cleric and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression, and religious legitimacy.
Together they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governance network.
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A billboard featuring Iran’s top leaders since 1979: (from left to right) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026) and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is shown above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. (AFP/via Getty Images)
Despite internal divisions, the Iranian leadership remains united on one core goal: the survival of the regime.
Kuperwasser described the split: ‘There are the more pragmatic elites, such as Araghchi, Rouhani and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually had the upper hand… But they are united in one issue: that the regime must survive and remain in power.”
Iran’s UN mission did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.
