And given the current razor-thin margin of 218-214 in the House of Representatives, losing just three Republican seats would give Democrats control. In the Senate, Democrats face greater challenges, but not impossible.
As the cliché goes, “a week is a long time in politics.” And the elections don’t last for seven months.
All off-year elections represent a referendum on the president — and given President Donald Trump’s ability to dominate and disrupt — that’s especially true in November. Fortunately for the Republican Party, a host of knowns and unknowns remain—issues that will likely have more impact on the outcome of the November election than on the state of the race in March.
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Nicolás Maduro is seen in handcuffs after landing on a helipad in Manhattan, escorted by heavily armed federal agents as they make their way into an armored car en route to a federal courthouse in Manhattan on January 5, 2026, in New York City. (XNY/Star Max/GC Images via Getty Images)
The obvious known-unknown is – as always – the economy. But this year – given the current bombing of Iran, the change in leadership in Venezuela and the uncertainty over Cuba – Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy actions could be decisive.
People in the know will tell you that foreign policy never matters in elections. They’re wrong. A president’s foreign actions – especially military ones – have a huge impact on the perception of a president’s strength. President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan changed his job approval overnight. It was never recovered. In light of Disruptive Don, Biden had campaigned as Serious Joe. But the results in Afghanistan, where thirteen American soldiers died, made many Americans agree with Trump: he was sleepy.
Unlike Biden, Trump is trying to show that his creative disruption is paying off for the US. The likely political impact will be measured more by the actual outcome – in the near future than by today’s polls, which indicate skepticism among voters.
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Trump’s disruption appears to have worked in Venezuela, where the US military has deposed a dictator and the government appears to be acting amicably towards the US for the first time in more than a quarter of a century.
In late February, Trump, in keeping with his personality, rolled the dice again – killing the top leaders of Iran – a country that has embarrassed and threatened the US for almost half a century – arguably destroying the presidency of Jimmy Carter and blackening the two most popular presidents of the past fifty years – Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.
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Recent results are decidedly mixed: oil prices have skyrocketed and Iran appears to have successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the bombings continue to cause significant damage to both Iran’s infrastructure and the country’s leadership.
Military analysts disagree on whether this air damage will prompt them to “cry uncle” and limit Iran’s ability to continue inflicting asymmetric damage on oil-producing Arab states and the global economy. Political analysts, however, must admit that it is a clearly known-unknown phenomenon. The reality of Iran – as Americans see it in the fall – will have a major impact on voters’ partisan conclusions in November.
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Unlike Biden, Trump wants to show that his creative disruption is paying off for the US
And 90 miles off the US coast, Cuba remains as it has been for almost 70 years – as an island of opposition and anathema to the policies of every US president since Dwight Eisenhower. The loss of the Venezuelan oil that kept their economy afloat puts significant pressure on the government.
Marco Rubio – the son of Cuban refugees, is Secretary of State. And the Cuban government has seen Trump’s ability to roll the dice, as he did with Venezuela and Iran. There are already signs that the Cubans are a ‘whispering uncle’. Cuba’s Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga told NBC News that “Cuba is open to a smooth commercial relationship with American companies, including with Cubans living in the United States and their descendants.”
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I’m not making a military prediction about what these three disruptions will look like eight months from now. But their outcome will likely be decisive in Trump’s disruptive presidency.
And if you want an idea of who will win in the midterm elections, it will be the known and unknown people who will decide that, not Trump’s current dismal election results.
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