President Donald Trump signaled this week that the United States might take action against Cuba, raising new questions about what would happen if mounting pressure triggers a political shift on the island.
The warning comes as Cuba faces one of its worst internal crises in decades, with a collapsing economy, widespread power outages and fuel shortages straining the regime’s ability to govern. The situation has worsened as supplies of subsidized fuel from Venezuela have declined, cutting off a major energy lifeline.
But with pressure mounting both inside and outside the island, experts say the central question is not who could replace President Miguel Díaz-Canel – but that there is no clear successor at all.
TRUMP PRAISES US HAVING ‘HUGE’ AMOUNT OF VENEZELAN OIL, PROMISES TO TAKE CARE OF CUBA AFTER FOCUS ON IRAN
A poster of Cuba’s Fidel Castro hangs on the wall of a food market next to a sign that reads “I’m looking at you” in Havana, Cuba, Tuesday, August 13, 2013. Castro’s brother Raul Castro has been in power since a near-fatal illness forced Fidel to step aside in 2006. (AP Photo/Franklin Reyes)
She added that the regime “has controlled communications, restricted the gathering of people, surveilled its own people, killed press freedom, criminalized dissent and ultimately made a powerful opposition force highly unlikely.”
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel makes a gesture during the second plenary session of the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 6, 2025. (PABLO PORCIUNCULA/AFP via Getty Images)
Arcos said that Díaz-Canel “has very little power”, describing him as a figure installed to project a younger image without changing the system.
“The key figure remains Raúl Castro,” he said, referring to the 94-year-old former Cuban leader.
That dynamic, analysts argue, explains why even a dramatic shift — whether caused by internal collapse or external pressure — might not immediately produce a new leader.
And yet a small group of insiders, technocrats and opposition figures are seen as potential players in any transition – although none represents a clear or uniform alternative.
THE SOUND OF FREEDOM: CUBA’S REGIME IS TIMELESS – NOW THE US MUST ACT
Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga: the technocratic option
Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Investment Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga speaks at the 41st Havana International Fair (FIHAV) in Havana, Cuba, November 25, 2025. (Norlys Pérez/Reuters)
Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a relatively unknown figure to most Cubans, has quietly risen through the ranks.
The 54-year-old electronics engineer is Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investments, and is the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro.
“He’s part of the family,” Arcos said, underscoring how even emerging figures remain embedded within the same ruling network.
Arcos said his meteoric rise makes him one of the more plausible faces of a controlled transition.
“He could be a good technocrat… based on the norms of the Castro system,” he said.
But such a move would likely be cosmetic. “They could take down Díaz-Canel and replace him with someone like Pérez-Oliva… as a gesture… but it won’t change anything,” Arcos said, explaining that it would be a technocratic reshuffle designed to relieve pressure, not reform the system.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PRESSED TO CLOSE THE CUBA EMBARGO MEASURE AS THE OIL WOULD RUN OUT WITHIN DAYS
Alejandro Castro Espín: the continuity of security
Alejandro Castro Espin, son of Cuban President Raul Castro, is seen during an event commemorating the one-year anniversary of the death of late Cuban President Fidel Castro, in Havana, Cuba, November 25, 2017. (Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters)
Raúl Castro’s son, Alejandro Castro Espín, represents the regime’s security backbone.
According to El País, he is a longtime intelligence official and closely linked to Cuba’s internal security apparatus and inner circle of power.
Although he is not publicly positioned as a successor, his influence underlines how power remains concentrated within the Castro family and military-linked elite, which experts say could lead to a hardline continuity scenario rooted in security control.
Manuel Marrero Cruz: connected to the crisis
Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz attends a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow, Russia, June 13, 2023. (Sputnik/Dmitry Astakhov/Pool via Reuters)
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz remains one of the most visible figures in the current Cuban leadership.
But Arcos noted that Marrero’s tenure is closely linked to the country’s economic collapse. “He has been there during this dramatic decline… so he is intimately linked to the catastrophe,” he said.
Experts cited by El País also believe that figures like Marrero are unlikely to represent meaningful change, and that he represents continuity linked to the current crisis, with little credibility for reform.
Roberto Morales Ojeda: the party structure
Cuban Health Minister Roberto Morales Ojeda looks on during a press conference on support for Ebola-affected countries at the World Health Organization (WHO) headquarters in Geneva on September 12, 2014. (Pierre Albouy/Reuters)
As a senior Communist Party official, Roberto Morales Ojeda represents the institutional core of the regime. His power lies within the party apparatus and commands loyalty and ideological control.
Like other insiders, he is seen as part of the continuity model and not as a break from it.
CUBA IS NEARING ITS MOMENT OF THE BERLIN WALL – AMERICA MUST HELP THEM BREAKTHROUGH
Rosa María Payá and the opposition: outside influence
Rosa Maria Paya, daughter of late Cuban dissident Oswaldo Paya, is seen during a tribute to her father’s memory in Santiago, Chile, April 17, 2017. (Ivan Alvarado/Reuters)
While regime insiders dominate succession talks, opposition figures remain largely off the island.
Rosa María Payá, a prominent activist and founder of Cuba Decide, has emerged as a leading voice for democratic change from exile.
“The first priority is political prisoners and guaranteeing basic civil liberties,” she said, describing their plan. “They must be released immediately, and that must be a non-negotiable condition of any agreement. The second is the dismantling of the repressive apparatus… From there, the plan moves toward a transitional government, addressing the humanitarian situation and setting a clear timeline for free and internationally monitored elections.”
Arcos spoke positively about the role of Payá and the broader opposition movement. “They are honorable, respectful, smart people who want the best for Cuba,” he said. “They are not just looking for power… they do this out of a sense of duty.”
Still, analysts warn that the system leaves little room for an opposition-led transition in the short term.
“The reality is that much of Cuba’s real opposition no longer lives on the island,” Ford Maldonado said, noting that the repression has driven the leaders into exile.
Bottom line: no clear heir, no easy transition
Despite speculation about individual names, experts say the real problem is structural.
“If Raúl dies tomorrow, it could open Pandora’s box,” Arcos said, suggesting internal power struggles could arise.
Even then, he warned, the regime is unlikely to easily relinquish control after decades in power.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Fidel Castro, left, raises the hand of his brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, center, as they sing the National Anthem of International Socialism in Havana, Cuba. (AP)
“There is probably no real path forward that runs through the Castros or the current regime,” Ford Maldonado said.
For now, Cuba’s succession issue remains unresolved, not because there are no names, but because the system itself is designed to ensure that there is no real alternative waiting in the wings.
