Republicans had looked at the 2026 Senate map and thought the party would be in a strong position to expand its majority. At least that was the thinking when Donald Trump’s second administration began.
The president took office and instituted a series of bad policies, including tariffs that slowed economic growth and drove up prices. The president also got his party’s majority in Congress to pass a tax cut for the wealthy bill, which was paid for in small part by massive cuts to food and health insurance subsidies. The result of this policy is that people lose their health insurance or see their premiums skyrocket.
Trump then started a war of choice in the Middle East, causing fuel costs to skyrocket.
Democrats have seized on affordability as the defining issue in the midterm elections. Democrats have also won a string of recruiting victories for Senate races, where they got the candidates they wanted in states like Alaska and North Carolina, while Republicans built their strategy on maintaining their gains with Latino voters who have abandoned them because of Trump’s immigration policies.
The political climate has created a perfect storm in Texaswhere two unpopular Republicans are in a runoff, and the Democrats have their preferred candidate.
There are growing signs that unrest could be brewing in the Lone Star State, a new poll shows Impact research for the Talarico campaign revealed: “Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton. Cornyn follows Talarico with 2 points (43% Talarico / 41% Cornyn) and Paxton follows him with 1 (44% Talarico / 43% Paxton).”
To better understand what’s going on and how it’s happening, let’s dive into the numbers.
