Even as Iran expands its attacks across the Persian Gulf, several directly targeted countries still refuse to join the fight against Iran, opting instead for restraint and diplomacy. Gulf governments say their priority is to defend their territory while preventing a wider conflict that could destabilize the region and global energy markets.
“No one. No one. The biggest experts – no one thought they would strike,” Trump said when Doocy asked about Iranian attacks on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.
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A plume of smoke rises from Zayed Port after a reported Iranian attack in Abu Dhabi on March 1, 2026. Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone campaign in the Gulf has killed three people and injured 58 in the United Arab Emirates since it began, Emirati authorities said on March 1, the day after the US and Israel launched a nationwide attack on Iran that killed its supreme leader. (Ryan Lim/AFP via Getty Images)
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Tehran expanded the conflict following the US-Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities earlier this month, expanding retaliatory measures against Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded at least 25 Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure in several Gulf states.
“Tehran targeted energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to increase the costs of the war for the US and its regional partners,” said Luca Nevola, ACLED’s senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf.
Foreign workers watch a tall plume of black smoke rise after an explosion in Fujairah’s industrial zone on March 3, 2026. Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbors since February 28, following the US-Israeli strike, forced the UAE to close its airspace, blinding travelers who thought they were heading to one of the safest holiday destinations in the region. (Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images)
Al-Ansari pointed to a long-standing Saudi strategic philosophy. “More than a hundred years ago, Saudi Arabia’s founder, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, said: ‘The living do not fight the dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh will follow this doctrine, at least until further developments unfold,” he said.
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Firefighters work in Muharraq, Bahrain, after reported Iranian attacks caused fires in fuel tanks near the airport on Thursday, March 12, 2026. (Bahrain Ministry of Information/Reuters)
Another factor shaping the Gulf states’ reluctance is the regional policy that refuses to allow their territory to be used for attacks on Iran. Some US military experts say the Gulf’s hesitation is also linked to long-standing concerns about Washington’s reliability in the region.
The now retired vice admiral said Gulf governments were carefully weighing the risks of escalation. “As these countries consider whether to go on the offensive, they worry about what will happen if we leave,” he said. “Granted, these countries are challenged to defend themselves against a country of 90 million without us.”
Regional analysts say Gulf leaders are concerned that if even one country joins the fighting, the conflict could quickly engulf the region.
The consequences can extend far beyond the battlefield. “You can imagine what oil prices would be. We’re definitely talking $150 a barrel,” he claimed.
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Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke rise from an Israeli attack on the Sharan oil depot, following Israeli attacks on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are also wary of open-ended military campaigns in the region. “Past experience shows that every time military action is initiated in the region, it never ends as promised,” he said.
Instead, he said Gulf countries are focusing on defensive measures while quietly supporting diplomatic channels, including mediation efforts through Oman.
The retired air force commander warned that attacks on key infrastructure such as oil fields or desalination plants could push Gulf states toward a more aggressive response.
“I tend to believe that there may be one or two countries in the region that are inclined to join the US in going on the offensive against Iran,” Newton said. “That is certainly a possibility in the coming weeks.”
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An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboat sails in the Persian Gulf during an IRGC naval parade to mark Persian Gulf National Day near the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Bushehr, Iran, on April 29, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Newton added that the long-term goal for the US and its partners is to prevent Iran from threatening regional stability and global shipping lanes. “That includes achieving maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf and creating the conditions for safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
For now, however, Gulf leaders appear determined to contain the conflict rather than escalate it, even though Iranian attacks have already reached their territory.
The UAE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
