When President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing later this March for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the official agenda will look like every other U.S.-China meeting in recent history: tariffs, trade balances, supply chains, Taiwan.
The real story walking through the door with him will be Iran.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a sweeping joint campaign targeting Iran’s military, nuclear and command infrastructure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening attacks – a huge blow to a regime that had terrorized the region for almost fifty years. Within days, his son Mojtaba was appointed successor, a dynastic transfer within a theocracy that once claimed to reject hereditary rule.
The war continues – and its consequences are hitting Beijing harder than Xi Jinping ever planned.
STEVE MOORE: FIVE ENERGY TRUTHS THE MEDIA IGNORES AS AMERICA’S OIL BOOM IMPACTS THE IRAN WAR
Russia and China: no bystanders
Both Moscow and Beijing are actively helping Iran fight this war. This needs to be stated clearly because the government’s public messaging on this point has been overly cautious.
Multiple US officials have confirmed that Russia has shared satellite and targeting intelligence with Tehran – including the locations of US warships and aircraft in the Middle East. That information comes at a price. Seven American soldiers have now been killed in Iranian attacks. Iran’s own ISR capabilities have been largely damaged by our attacks. The precision of the missile and drone strikes that have been implemented owes something to Moscow’s above-ground constellation.
TRUMP RESTORES WORLD ENERGY MARKETS AND THE IRAN ATTACKS ACTUALLY HELP
An opposing coalition that actively helps kill American troops deserves discussion at the table in Beijing.
China’s role is less direct, but no less consequential.
TRUMP SUDDENLY APPEARS SERIOUS ABOUT ENDING THE WAR AS US VICTIMS REACH AND IRAN FINDS WAYS TO STIT BACK
For years, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese companies have funneled technology into Iran’s missile and weapons programs. The Treasury Department has repeatedly sanctioned Chinese companies for supplying missile-related materials to Tehran.
Analysts have also pointed to Iran’s interest in China’s CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile – a weapon designed to threaten large naval vessels – which has emerged in Iranian procurement talks. Chinese technology already runs through parts of Iran’s missile infrastructure, from electronics to propulsion components.
Denial and innocence are not the same.
IRAN WAR BRINGS TRUMP’S ECONOMIC BOOM AHEAD OF IMPORTANT MIDDLE ELECTIONS
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran on March 7, 2026. (Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
China’s energy vulnerability
Despite all of Beijing’s public actions, the war against Iran is really costing China money – and Xi knows it.
China built its manufacturing economy on reliable access to cheap energy, including competitively priced crude oil from sanctioned states. Iran has been a crucial part of that equation. According to data from Kpler Analytics and other tracking companies, China imported about 1.38 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day in 2025 — about 13% of its total seaborne oil imports, with almost all of it routed through shadowy middlemen to evade U.S. sanctions.
IRAN IS NOT ADJUSTING TO AMERICA’S PLAYBOOK. RUSSIA AND CHINA ALREADY HAVE THAT
That current now runs directly through a war zone. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil production flows, is at the center of the conflict. At the time of writing, the strait is effectively closed to tanker traffic. For Beijing, this means rising energy costs, supply chain disruption and the loss of one of its key discount suppliers all at once.
The shadow fleet is being dismantled
Adding to the pressure on Beijing is Washington’s increasing crackdown on the “shadow fleet” – the network of ambiguously flagged tankers used to transport sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude to Chinese refineries. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has imposed sanctions on dozens of shipping companies, ships and intermediaries involved in Iranian oil smuggling. Much of that crude oil ends up in China.
The war continues – and its consequences are hitting Beijing harder than Xi Jinping ever planned.
ONGOING WAR WITH IRAN COULD Drain U.S. Missile Stockpiles and Test ESCALATION CONTROL
If sanctions enforcement is further tightened – and there is every reason to push harder now – the gray market that has allowed Beijing to obtain cheap energy from sanctioned regimes will shrink. The bill for China’s energy dependence will come.
Xi’s bond
Xi publicly condemns the war. Privately, Chinese energy companies have urged Tehran not to attack Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities – because China gets about 28% of its LNG from Qatar. Defending Iran on the world stage while silently begging the country not to burn its fuel supply is not a strong position.
WAR IN IRAN, 11 DAYS IN: US CONTROLS AIR, OIL FLOWS AND REGION SUPPORTS FOR WHAT’S NEXT
Xi cannot replace discounted Iranian oil overnight. He cannot rehabilitate a dead supreme leader. And he cannot withstand a prolonged energy shock while his GDP growth target is a modest 4.5% – China’s lowest target in more than three decades. All this pressure is a lever that Trump should use. This is not the time for diplomatic niceties.
What Trump should demand
The Beijing summit is not a trade negotiation. It’s a strategic confrontation, and Trump should come in knowing exactly what he wants.
TRUMP’S STRIKE ON IRAN IS A BIG COMPLAINT FOR PUTIN’S WAR MACHINE IN UKRAINE
First, Xi must use his documented influence over Moscow to halt Russian intelligence support for Iranian attacks on U.S. forces. General Petraeus is right when he says that sanctions against Russia are long overdue. But China’s economic exposure to this war gives Washington a second lever – and Trump should pull it at the same time.
Second, China must shut down the missile technology pipeline to Tehran. Finance Minister Bessent is already considering putting pressure on Beijing on sanctioned oil purchases during his pre-summit talks with Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng in Paris. That push must extend explicitly to arms transfers – the CM-302 deal, propellant shipments, dual-use components. Washington is watching it all.
Third, Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports—imposed in retaliation for U.S. tariffs and designed to complicate U.S. weapons supplies—should be called what they are: economic warfare. The tightening energy markets created by this conflict give Washington a position of power it has not had in years. Expanded US LNG exports and Gulf energy cooperation are available – but only for real concessions, not for diplomatic theater.
For years, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese companies have funneled technology into Iran’s missile and weapons programs.
The real question in Beijing
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS ADVICE
For years, Beijing methodically cultivated an authoritarian axis with Iran, Russia and Venezuela as a hedge against American power. Iran is now destabilized. Venezuela is outside Beijing’s sphere of influence. Russia is exposed. The axis that met confidently in Beijing last September looks significantly more vulnerable today.
Xi will arrive at this summit hoping to stabilize the relationship and project strength on his own turf. Trump should arrive knowing that the war against Iran has given Washington something truly rare in the long history of U.S.-China diplomacy.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Leverage.
The card is in Washington’s hand. The question is whether Trump plays it.
CLICK HERE TO ROBERT MAGINNES
