President Donald Trump has proven time and time again that he can master strategic and tactical surprise in conflicts, and that he is dependent on the military professionals who advise him. Now, however, he faces a decision about when to end the fight with the Islamic Republic of Iran or any regime after its collapse.
In making that decision, the events of 35 years ago must be taken into account.
The American-led international coalition that assembled to drive Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces from Kuwait began that war on January 17, 1991, with a massive air and naval bombardment of Saddam’s forces in Kuwait and some targets in Iraq. The first phase of the first Gulf War lasted five weeks. The second phase, a ground invasion of Kuwait, began on February 24, 1991 and famously (or infamously) ended after 100 hours.
Serious military professionals have long debated the decision by then-President George HW Bush, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell to end military operations when they did. There had been tremendous tactical success and strategic advantage from such an overwhelming show of force, and almost certainly there are Americans alive today who would not have survived a protracted campaign to depose Saddam Hussein 35 years ago.
But..
Iraq’s “swamp Arabs,” the Shia Muslim population who inhabited the swamps around the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in the southern part of the country, which was still under Saddam’s control after the 100 Hours Campaign, attempted to free themselves from Saddam’s remaining forces. A 1992 Human Rights Watch report concluded: “In their effort to retake cities, and after consolidating control, loyalist forces killed thousands of unarmed civilians by shooting indiscriminately into residential neighborhoods; executing young people on the streets, in homes, and in hospitals; rounding up suspects, especially young men, in house-to-house searches, arresting them without charge or shooting them en masse; and using helicopters to attack unarmed civilians as they fled the cities “
Add to that carnage another decade of Saddam’s atrocities against his people, which only ended when the second President Bush, this time with Dick Cheney as vice president and Colin Powell as secretary of state, ordered the military to invade Iraq and overthrow the dictator. In the twelve years between the two wars came the cost and danger of the two no-fly zones, which were sanctioned by the United Nations and enforced by the US.
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A friendly fire incident: US F-15s accidentally shot down two US Black Hawk helicopters, causing the loss of 26 military and civilian lives.
It is believed that the extensive deployment of US forces in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also led to the June 25, 1996 terrorist attack on the Khobar Towers, a residential complex in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. The attack, blamed on al-Qaeda and the Islamic Republic of Iran, killed 19 airmen and injured more than 400 U.S. and international military personnel and civilians. The towers were home to troops and civilians supporting Operation Southern Watch, the no-fly zone operation in southern Iraq.
Counterfactuals are not useful for debate. – US officials make the toughest decisions with limited information, some of which we still don’t know – but the actual history that followed the 100 Hours of War may shape the decisions that pre-empt President Trump.
MARK LEVIN: HANDS OFF POST-WAR IRAN? THAT COULD BE A SERIOUS STRATEGIC MISTAKE FOR AMERICA AND THE WORLD
Had the first Gulf War not ended after a haphazard lapse of a hundred hours, but instead expanded into a ground campaign in Iraq to depose Saddam Hussein in 1991, a very different Middle Eastern history might have followed, perhaps free of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs that precipitated this struggle. But the coalition put together by the first President Bush may have fallen apart. The number of American casualties from that war would have exceeded 300 dead and 450 wounded. Once again, the “What could have happened” debate is ridiculous to have. We cannot know.
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But President Trump and his advisors can and will undoubtedly reflect that the United States, with the Islamic Republic on its back, without many defense mechanisms but still with clout, may want to persist in the ongoing struggle until a new group of rulers is installed who are free of the medieval theological motivations of the late Ayatollah Khamenei.
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It is not up to citizens to make war plans, but presidents should study the decisions of their predecessors. A premature end to this battle will almost certainly lead to another, perhaps without the advantage brought by the tactical surprise of this weekend’s attack. We can reasonably guess this because this regime refused to halt its nuclear program, its missile program, and its export of terrorism after President Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, and again after Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program. Instead, the fanatics at the top of this barbaric regime began to rebuild their killing capabilities and showed their true colors with the stunning massacre of more than 35,000 of their own citizens in January. This regime is incapable of change. The regime must be changed.
Persevere President Trump. Since it came to power in 1979, Americans have died at the hands of this evil regime. Even more have died this week. Don’t let it survive to kill again.
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