Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate are trying to turn two tragic federal shootings in Minneapolis into a cause for celebs to shackle, slash and ultimately break ICE’s budgetary backbone. But let’s not pretend that this political storm is about compassion or responsibility.
If Democrats succeed in abruptly halting the deportation of what some estimates estimate to be as many as 20 million illegal aliens imported under President Joe Biden, hundreds more U.S. citizens would be murdered and thousands raped, assaulted or robbed by a violent subset of Biden’s illegal alien horde.
Here’s the statistical story behind America’s latest true crime nightmare.
Numerous studies have analyzed the link between illegal aliens and crime. Using large administrative datasets, researchers have calculated – with surprising accuracy – the extent to which illegal aliens commit various crimes. Based on these figures, it is easy to estimate mathematically how many Americans would fall prey to new illegal alien violence.
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Lizbeth Medina, Jocelyn Nungaray, Laken Riley and Rachel Morin are Americans who were allegedly murdered by illegal immigrants. (Instagram; Fox Houston; Facebook; Family Awards)
Start with murder.
The Cato Institute examined one of the largest and most credible data sets available, from the border state of Texas, and found that for every 100,000 illegal aliens, approximately 2.2 Americans are murdered. Using essentially the same Texas data, the Center for Immigration Studies adjusts for delayed identification and other methodological issues and arrives at a homicide rate of about 3.9 per 100,000 in one illustrative year.
Apply these tariffs to Biden’s 20 million new illegal aliens, and the result is grim: between 440 and 780 additional Americans would be killed.
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That’s not a statistic. That’s a slaughterhouse.
Past victims already have names.
Laken Riley, 22, killed in Georgia after prosecutors say she resisted an attempted rape by José Ibarra, a Venezuelan illegal alien previously released after arrest.
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Jocelyn Nungaray, 12, was strangled in Houston in June 2024. Two Venezuelan nationals – Johan Jose Martinez-Rangel and Franklin Jose Peña Ramos – are charged with capital murder. Both entered the United States illegally, were apprehended near El Paso, Texas, and released with a pre-murder notice. They remain in the Harris County Jail awaiting trial, and prosecutors are seeking the death penalty.
Rachel Morin, raped and murdered on a trail in Maryland by El Salvadoran Victor Antonio Martinez-Hernandez.
Apply these tariffs to Biden’s 20 million new illegal aliens, and the result is grim: between 440 and 780 additional Americans would be killed.
Kayla Hamilton, a 20-year-old Maryland woman with autism, raped and strangled by Walter Javier Martinez, an illegal alien from El Salvador who had entered the United States just months earlier.
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Future victims would also have names, faces, families and dreams – just as sympathetic as Renée Good and Alex Pretti.
And murder is just the tip of Biden’s illegal alien iceberg.
According to a National Institute of Justice-funded study published in 2020 using arrest data from the Texas Department of Public Safety (2012-2018), the number of arrests per 100,000 undocumented immigrants was 11.3 for sexual abuse, 77.8 for assault, 18.2 for burglary, and 136.0 for drug violations.
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Scaled up to 20 million illegal aliens, this calculation implies that another 2,260 Americans would be sexually assaulted, 3,640 American homes would be burglarized, 15,560 Americans would be violently attacked, and there would be 27,200 drug arrests involving dealers, human traffickers, smugglers, and hardcore possession cases.
These are the kinds of uncomfortable statistics that Hill residents like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Democrat Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar and sanctuary politicians like Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz don’t want to calculate – and the sheer evil they don’t want you to see.
As a deception, the left also likes to point out that many studies conclude that crime rates among illegal aliens are marginally lower than those among American citizens. But that is the wrong standard.
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Even though illegal aliens have a lower crime rate – and the data is far from clear – when millions of illegal aliens enter the country, the absolute number of crimes increases. You don’t have to be a mathematician – or a victim of an illegal alien crime – to understand that.
Anti-ICE protesters gathered in Minnesota on Saturday, February 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
There’s also this: The older data sets used by many analysts today almost certainly underestimate the danger posed by the most recent Biden-era wave. Why?
Because countries around the world like Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela deliberately opened their prisons and released violent criminals during the latest border breach – both to reduce crime at home and to export crime to America.
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Those are the statistics. Here’s the politics.
The strange coalition of bedfellows on the kneecap ICE is led by Democrats who play the long electoral game and view illegal aliens as political pawns and are funded by corporate interests that benefit from cheaper labor and wage suppression. Add to that the drug and human trafficking cartel supply chains and the traditional media blinded by the Trump Derangement Syndrome, and you have the current government shutdown crisis.
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Future victims would also have names, faces, families and dreams – just as sympathetic as Renée Good and Alex Pretti.
Our job is to resist. Because “defund ICE” doesn’t just mean fewer deportations.
It means more empty chairs at dining tables. More funerals. Even more lives destroyed – on top of all the jobs American citizens are losing.
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Republicans must do a much better job of maintaining their ranks on Capitol Hill and communicating these essential Secure Border Trump truths.
And Democrats would do well to remember one of the main reasons they lost the last election. A supermajority of Americans want both secure borders and mass deportations. For their safety. For their jobs. For their wages. For their culture.
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