The odds have been in favor of Democrats winning the House of Representatives for almost a year. Midterm elections are not usually kind to presidents, and Trump’s popularity began to decline three weeks into his second administration. The slide continued throughout its first year.
The president’s tariffs and lack of concern about costs and inflation have angered voters and turned many of them against his administration.
While ICE rightly grabs many of the headlines, the economy is the issue that continues to push the midterm elections in the Democrats’ direction.
Incumbent Senate members typically have a re-election rate of about 80 percent or more. It is rare for a wave of Senate incumbents to lose in a non-presidential election year.
In 2022, 100% of Senate incumbents running for re-election won. The low one. The lowest reelection rate for sitting senators in the past two decades came in 2006, when it was 78.3%.
It looks like there’s a wave building against Trump and the Republican Party in 2026, and that wave is starting to worry Republicans, even in deep red states like Texas, where if incumbent Senator John Cornyn loses the Republican Party primary, Democrats will have a chance to gain a Senate seat in a state they haven’t won statewide in decades.
Republicans have more than just a problem with the Texas Senate. The issue is becoming a national Senate problem, and Trump is to blame.
