Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., discusses the ongoing health care debate in the Senate and criticizes Democrats’ approach to Obamacare subsidies on Kudlow.
Registration with Obamacare plans appears to be trending toward a decline of more than 1 million Americans by 2026, amid a rise in monthly premiums and the expiration of increased federal health insurance premium subsidies put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released a report Wednesday showing that 23 million consumers signed up for individual health insurance through the marketplaces during the 2026 open enrollment period. That included 15.8 million selections in states using the HealthCare.gov platform and 7.2 million through state exchanges.
The increased COVID-era health insurance subsidies expired at the end of last year after Congress failed to agree on an extension, although the original subsidies implemented under the Affordable Care Act are still in place. Total premium costs for subsidized Obamacare enrollees are expected to rise from $888 to an average of $1,904 by 2026, according to KFF data.
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An analysis by healthcare research firm KFF shows that enrollments dropped approximately from mid-January 1.2 million consumers compared to the 24.2 million enrolled at this time last year.
Congress failed to reach an agreement to extend increased subsidies for COVID-era Obamacare plans. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
KFF noted that the enrollment data released at this stage represents automatic renewals and plan selections, which do not necessarily translate into actual enrollments as some may ultimately choose not to pay for their plan.
More than four in 10 sign-ups by 2025 were from automatic renewals, and KFF explained that returning consumers will lose their initial bills from insurers and see the costs, they can choose not to pay the premium and ultimately lose coverage or choose to disenroll.
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It is expected that the costs of health insurance will rise sharply in 2026. (Getty Images)
The group warned that without the enhanced premium tax credits, the effectuation or premium payment rate could decline compared to previous years, which could result in the final registration details show a deeper decline.
KFF conducted a poll showing that premium payments were expected to more than double on average by 2026, and about 25% of enrollees said they would forgo health insurance this year if their premiums doubled as expected.
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Obamacare enrollment figures won’t be finalized until the 90-day grace period for paying premiums expires. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Analysts said they expect overall enrollment in Obamacare plans to decline in coming months as consumers see the higher premiums and choose to let their coverage lapse rather than pay so much more to maintain their coverage.
“Given the 90-day grace period, which should apply to the majority of ACA members, we see the potential for strong unenrollment activity during this period, which will lead to a lower final enrollment number,” said Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson.
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Enrollment on HealthCare.gov was open until January 15, 2026, although state exchange enrollment deadlines vary.
Reuters contributed to this report.
