As anti-regime protests continue to spread across Iran and questions arise about the sustainability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a central question looms: who would actually take power if the Islamic Republic were to collapse?
According to regional experts and Iranian opposition figures, the answer is far from clear. It may depend less on ideology than on how the regime falls and whether Iran’s security forces disintegrate or hold on.
Collapse is as important as succession
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the critical variable is not just whether the regime collapses, but how it happens.
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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks after casting his vote for the second round of presidential elections on July 5, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
“One thing I fear is the Western temptation for a Maduro- or Egypt-type model,” he said, referring to scenarios in which entrenched security forces retain power under new leadership. “That will only mean musical chairs at the top and will not provide the Iranian people with a path to meaningful change.”
Ben Taleblu argued that the Iranian opposition faces a logistical challenge rather than an ideological challenge: translating sustained street protests into organized political power before security forces reassert control.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) special forces walk on the American flag during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, in Tehran, Iran, on March 28, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The decisive role of security forces
Several experts agreed that Iran’s future depends on whether the regime’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Basij militia and the regular army, remains intact.
Ben Taleblu said the key factor is whether parts of the security forces malfunction, refuse orders or disintegrate. “What must be taken away is the coercive power of the regime,” he said, adding that a transition would require sustained protests, economic strikes and rifts within security units.
Without that, analysts warn, Iran could see a scenario in which spiritual figureheads disappear but real power remains in the hands of armed institutions.
“That’s the fear,” said Ben Taleblu. “If the state plays musical chairs, the streets won’t settle for it. That means a bumpier road ahead.”
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Members of the Basij paramilitary force hold the Iranian flag, the Lebanese flag, the flag of Hashd Shabi, the flag of the Quds Force’s Fatemiyoun Brigade and the flag of the Lebanese Hezbollah during a rally commemorating the International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, in central Tehran, April 14, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Could the military take over?
Some analysts point to historical precedents, including Egypt, where the military intervened amid unrest. Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a military-led transition could not be ruled out but would be fraught.
Sabti cited former armed forces chief Habibollah Sayyari as an example of someone who has expressed limited criticism from within the system. Still, he warned that criticism alone does not make a leader and said charisma is of great importance in Iranian politics.
The Iranian protests intensify for the twelfth day. (The National Council of Resistance of Iran)
“There is a charisma problem,” Sabti said. “In Iran it is very important.”
Political prisoners and internal leaders
Despite the international attention on jailed activists, experts are skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership would emerge from the country’s prison system.
Ben Taleblu said decades of repression have made it virtually impossible to cultivate political leadership within Iran. “What will come from within are the forces of revolution,” he said. “Political leadership must be built from the outside.”
Sabti reiterated that position, saying released prisoners would likely become part of a broader system rather than dominant leaders.
“There will be no leaders coming out of prison,” he said. “They will be part of a new system, but not charismatic leaders.”
Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi holds a press conference in Paris on June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)
The Exiled Opposition and the Pahlavi Question
Supporters of Reza Pahlavi say he is emerging as a focal point for opposition mobilization amid escalating unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publicly called on Iranians to sing from their homes or in the streets at 8 p.m. His aides said large crowds responded in multiple cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.
Those close to Pahlavi describe him as a supporter of a secular, democratic Iran committed to human rights, while rejecting claims that he is trying to restore the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said that the shape of Iran’s future system should be decided by the people through a free constitutional process.
“It is not my role to tip the balance in favor of the monarchy or the republic,” Pahlavi said. “I will remain completely impartial in the process to ensure that Iranians finally have the right to choose freely.”
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“The only person who can get through this is the crown prince,” Zand said, arguing that any prominent figure within Iran would be quickly eliminated by the regime. She dismissed alternative opposition figures as lacking legitimacy in the country.
Zand said chants in support of Pahlavi during recent protests reflect genuine sentiment and not fabrication, although such claims are difficult to independently verify amid internet shutdowns and state censorship.
Some experts warn that while Pahlavi is visible in the West and among parts of the Iranian public, he remains a polarizing figure, especially among Iranians wary of monarchy or outside influence.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Maryam Rajav at Ashraf-3 – May 16, 2022, in Albania. (NCRI)
Rajavi and organized opposition groups
Another long-standing opposition movement, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has received support from some leading American political figures from across the aisle over the years, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani.
Rajavi pointed to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its “Resistance Units” as the nuclear force behind the recent uprisings, claiming that they have played a decisive role in organizing protests and confronting security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. She said Iran’s National Council of Resistance is not seeking power for itself, but instead proposes a provisional period of six months after the overthrow of the regime, culminating in free elections for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic.
Newly elected NCRI President Maryam Rajavi stands next to former Vice President Mike Pence. (NCRI)
“Once established, all authority will be transferred to that Assembly, which will both select the provisional government and draft the constitution of the new republic,” Rajavi said. “Equality between men and women in all its facets, the separation of religion and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and many other urgent matters have been endorsed in detail by the NCRI.”
Speaking at an NCRI conference in Washington DC last November, Pompeo pushed back against critics, saying: “A thriving, democratic, popular government in Iran – no theocracy, no monarchy, no oppressive regime. This will be a great thing for the whole world. We are waiting for that day, and it will be a blessing for all of us.”
Ben Taleblu also warned against Western governments “playing favorites” among exiled factions, saying legitimacy must ultimately come from within Iran.
Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid developing anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screenshot obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026. (Social media/via Reuters)
No clear successor and a long road ahead
Despite intense speculation, experts agreed on one point: there is no clear successor waiting in the wings.
“We are not there yet,” Sabti said, noting that Khamenei is still alive and that the security forces are not broken.
Ben Taleblu described the moment as a marathon rather than a sprint, and warned against simplistic accounts of regime collapse.
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“This is about gaining the best bridgehead for a post-Islamic republic of Iran,” he said, “so that the revolutionary forces within can finally become voters and choose their own destiny.”
