R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard discusses President Donald Trump’s new announcement on farm aid on ‘Making Money’, what it means for the industry and the widening gap between beef and cattle prices.
It will be a while before consumers see any relief when it comes to beef prices.
The U.S. should have slightly more cattle available by 2026, but buyers are still turning to international suppliers to meet their needs, Swanson said. If buyers are still importing, it means domestic supply is still tight and prices are likely to remain high.
The cost of beef has been a particular sore point for consumers for years, with beef prices set to reach record highs by 2024 thanks to a combination of deteriorating pasture conditions, inflation and shrinking livestock inventory, according to the Farm Bureau.
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Beef prices rose sharply in September, surpassing the entire food category on the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index. The price of food rose 3.1% year on year, while beef prices rose 14.7%.
A rancher gathers cattle in St. Lucie County, Florida. (Ty Wright/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The industry’s problems persist, according to Farm Bureau economist Bernt Nelson, who wrote in a blog post last week that the Department of Agriculture’s “Cattle on Feed” report highlights the ongoing tightness in the supply of feeder cattle.
There were 11.7 million cattle on feed in the U.S. as of November 1, about 2% fewer than in 2024 and the lowest number of cattle on feed for the month of November since 2018. The report also estimates that 2.04 million cattle were placed on feedlots, down about 10% from last year. This is the lowest number of cattle placed on feed for the month of October in the history of the report.
The smaller number of cattle placed on feed, that is, beef sold in stores, is a reflection of the tighter supply of feeder cattle.
Cattle in corrals on a ranch in Sonoita, Arizona, on November 11, 2025. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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That competition will ultimately drive down beef prices.
The “players in this operation don’t want to give up what they currently have. And so it becomes a competitive battle that forces prices down,” he said, adding: “It’s never a straight line.”
The signs of that shift are already visible. Swanson said the industry is likely at an inflection point following Tyson’s announcement last month that it would permanently close a major beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, by January 2026 and reduce operations at the Texas beef plant to one shift.
Packages of meat are seen at a supermarket in Houston, Texas. (Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images)
Immediately after the announcement, live cattle prices fell sharply. Although prices have recovered somewhat, they are still below recent highs, according to Swanson.
That move “immediately sent a big signal to the market that they are going to bid a little less aggressively on live cattle,” Swanson said.
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He said meatpackers can’t keep losing money and “Tyson just proved they’re willing to do something tough about it.”
He believes cattle prices are going to drop, and that a 10% drop like in 2014 isn’t “outside reality” when you consider what could happen over the next year and a half.
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“If the price of cattle falls and the wholesale price of beef falls, the retail price of beef will also fall,” he said. “But when will it happen? Not immediately. So the consumer becomes frustrated and sees no immediate relief.”
