Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., discusses the Trump administration’s tax cuts and their impact on affordability in “The Bottom Line.”
Minister of Finance Scott Bessent said U.S. households will see “very large refunds” during tax filing season early next year due to policy changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Bessent spoke NBC10 Philadelphia Tuesday ahead of an event touting the Trump administration’s economic policies and saying American taxpayers could see significant refunds following the enactment of the OBBBA.
The Treasury Secretary noted that the tax law contains retroactive provisions for policies that will affect what taxpayers owe on this year’s earnings, which could increase the size of refunds.
“The bill passed in July. Working Americans have not changed their withholdings, so they will get very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent told NBC10. “I think we’re going to see a hundred dollars [billion]-$150 billion in reimbursements, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tax refunds will be significantly larger when tax season starts next year. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
“Then they will change their deductions and they will get a real pay increase. So I think 2026 could be a very good year,” Bessent added.
Bessent’s comments come amid broader pressure from the Trump administration to highlight its efforts to improve the affordability of life for Americans, with tax relief under the OBBBA being a key focus.
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President Donald Trump said next year will be the “biggest tax refund season ever.” (Andrew Harnik)
In addition to creating the new tax credit that Bessent discussed, the OBBBA expanded lower tax rates and higher standard deductions implemented under the 2017 Trump Act. tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of this year, leaving taxpayers with a tax increase in 2026.
The president said at a Cabinet meeting earlier this month that the upcoming tax filing season is “expected to be the largest tax refund season ever.”
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The IRS has issued more than $311 billion in tax refunds through October for the 2025 tax filing season. (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
Larger tax refunds can help households get their finances in order. IRS data The 2025 tax returns showed that the agency had paid out more than $211 billion in refunds as of early April, for an average of $3,116.
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The latest data from mid-October shows that the total amount of refunds paid increased to $311 billion, with the average refund amount declining slightly to $3,052. As of October 17, more than 102 million refunds have been issued in the 2025 filing season.
