As a Democrat who has won and lost presidential campaigns against Donald Trump, it is clear to me that the Republican Party’s greatest competitive advantage in recent elections has been its anti-establishment populist message. I say “message” because actions are always more important than words – especially when the actions contradict the words. That’s happening now. Trump and Vance are breaking their promises to stand up for ordinary Americans against the corrupt elites.
The prices that Trump and Vance promised to cut “immediately” — groceries, health care, electric bills — have risen, while economic growth has slowed. We see”recession level“job losses and unprecedented prosperity for the rich.
As a result, Trump and Vance are crippling Republicans’ key political advantage, creating new divisions in their party and the country. These shifts are big openings for Democrats when it comes to voters’ most important issue: their finances. Likewise, if I were one of the Republicans already navigating the 2028 shadow primaries, I would see increasing odds of defeating J.D. Vance.
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The Constitution prevents Trump from running for office again. Even if that weren’t the case, Trump’s declining energy levels and judgment make him a lame duck anyway. Case in point: The President of the United States is building himself an assisted living theme park on the grounds of the White House, while dismissing American concerns about affordability. This kind of anti-populist record is becoming an important baggage for Vance, making him a target for both Republicans and Democrats.
For example, it’s hard to imagine anything less populist – or more unchristian – than partying with billionaires while taking food from working families. Or forcing middle-class Americans to foot the bill for AI data centers backed by some of the wealthiest companies in history.
In the Biden White House, we have seen firsthand how damaging it is for the party in power when a majority of Americans view the economy negatively. The economic sentiment of voters determines the political tone.
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In November, the party that controls Washington lost elections across the country. From newly elected New Jersey Governor Abigail Spanberger to newly elected New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Democrats waged disciplined campaigns on the cost of living. This issue has staying power and could unite Democrats with newly convinced independents and Republicans. It happened again this week, with Republicans barely clinging to a deep-red congressional district in Tennessee.
Abigail Spanberger, Governor-elect of Virginia. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Unfortunately, for those of us who can’t afford to curry favor with the Trump-Vance administration by buying Trump’s meme coin or joining Donald Trump Jr.’s “Executive Branch” club, their agenda is sowing seeds for an even weaker economy.
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First, there is healthcare. Having already made the largest Medicaid cuts in history, Republicans in Washington want to end Democratic health care tax breaks for working people, sending premiums skyrocketing for millions and stripping coverage from more people.
Second, tens of thousands of people are losing their jobs due to AI – a rapidly increasing trend. While it is in America’s interest to lead the world when it comes to AI, the Trump-Vance administration – whose AI czar is himself a corrupt billionaire – is treating the livelihoods of millions of Americans as expendable, leaving workers ill-equipped for a successful economic future. In contrast, Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Representative Jake Auchincloss are working to ensure we win the AI race while fighting to protect blue-collar and white-collar workers.
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Then there is energy. After raising electricity bills with the deepest clean energy cuts ever, Republican majorities are helping extremely wealthy people charge working families for their data center energy consumption. Trump and Vance’s record on monopolistic mega-mergers will also come back to haunt them.
These realities all keep Vance caught between a rock and a hard place. Trump demands unconditional loyalty from underlings like Vance, but other likely candidates have more autonomy. For example, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green has attacked the White House over high prices.
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Greene is not alone among Republicans distancing himself from the government. When Nick Fuentes, a neo-Nazi who denied the Holocaust, said that “organized Judaism” was the greatest threat to America, Trump and Vance’s response to Fuentes was pathetically weak. But Texas Senator Ted Cruz, another possible candidate, denounced Fuentes.
There is also growing opposition from both parties to the government’s belligerence towards Venezuela. Americans don’t want military personnel risking their lives to distract from a billionaire president’s declining approval ratings.
What has been Vance’s greatest asset among fellow Republicans — his close relationship with Trump — could become the key for his rivals to undermine him. The Democrats are doing it now. Last month, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a popular swing-state Democrat, blasted Vance for taking food away from the hungry while cutting taxes for billionaires. He then signed a new tax credit for working families, providing $193 million in tax relief for 940,000 Pennsylvanians.
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The Republicans’ “Golden Age” is turning into a second Gilded Age, in which tax breaks for the wealthy are financed by higher costs for everyone else.
Across all political lines, Americans want leaders who want that Actually listen to them.
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