As the old saying goes, “Close only counts for horseshoes and hand grenades,” and the Republican Party is certainly breathing a sigh of relief after Tuesday night’s special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points in a race that has received a lot of national attention in recent weeks.
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However, upon further analysis, that relief will be short-lived, as President Trump lifted Tennessee’s seventh-place ranking by more than 20 points just a year ago, and the district has not elected a Democrat to Congress in more than 40 years.
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Despite millions in outside GOP spending and direct on-the-ground involvement from Chairman Johnson and President Trump, last night’s results represent a 13-point shift toward the Democrats compared to 2024.
Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps of Tennessee, left, shakes hands with Speaker Mike Johnson after being sworn in at the U.S. House on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, December 4, 2025 (AP)
For Republicans who have spent the past month downplaying Democratic statewide overperformance in Virginia and New Jersey and in key elections in traditionally friendlier areas in Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, last night should be a wake-up call for Team Red.
Here are five key takeaways from the results and what they mean for next November’s battle for Congress.
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The Democrats lost the race, but they continue to win the argument
Earlier this week, Republican Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett stated on Fox & Friends that this “special election shouldn’t be this close, but it is.” Burchett is right. This is a ruby-red Republican district that last sent a Democrat to Congress during the Reagan administration. Republicans poured more than $3 million into this race and used every tried and tested line of attack, from calling Behn “an anti-Tennessee radical progressive” to “defunding the police,” and Van Epps narrowly missed out.
Democrats have consistently outperformed in key off-year elections in 2025. With Behn’s 13-point improvement over 2024 results, Team Blue has performed better in 220 of 248 races – almost 90% – compared to just a year ago.
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The GOP pension crisis just got a lot worse
It’s important to remember why last night’s special election happened in the first place. Rep. Mark Green, who has held the seat since 2019 and chaired the House Homeland Security Committee, abruptly announced last June that he would leave Congress to almost certainly pursue a private-sector job with better pay, less travel and easier hours.
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Already this year, 44 lawmakers (more than 1 in 10) have announced they will not run for election or, in Green’s case, have already retired, with the majority of them members of the Republican Party’s caucus in the House of Representatives. Given Tuesday night’s results and the uncertainty surrounding mid-cycle redistricting, that retirement trend is likely to increase, giving Democrats the advantage to enter more open seat races.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Rep. Matt Van Epps, R-Tenn., with his wife Meg Wrather and their daughter Amelia Van Epps, swears on his daughter’s pink Bible at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., December 4, 2025 (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
It’s the ‘affordability’ argument, you stupid idiot
In 2024, President Trump won the economic debate over Vice President Harris, with many voters believing he would tackle inflation on day one. The electorate had grown tired of “Bidenomics” and rosier images of an economy in which real Americans were struggling with rising costs, affordable health care and housing.
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In Tennessee, Behn constantly talked about affordability, inflation and tariffs, using the successful message book of the Spanberger and Sherrill campaigns focused on the kitchen table economy. Voters want tangible solutions to real-world economic problems, and Democrats have learned how to rise to the moment, with President Trump doubling down during Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting that “the word ‘affordability’ is a Democratic scam.”
Aftyn Behn gives a concession speech during an election night watch party at Marathon Music Works on December 2, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)
The 2026 House battleground just expanded dramatically for Democrats
Tuesday night’s results build on the narrative that Democrats are overperforming in races, not by single digits, but by double digits, even in Trump plus-20 territory. While some experts will dismiss the results due to the nature of a special election, it’s worth noting that turnout was nearly identical to the last midterm election for this district in 2022.
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Just as 2018 expanded the chart thanks to normal medium-term trends and anti-MAGA energy, 2026 may do the same. There are about 50 Republican House members in districts the president won by 14 points or fewer, roughly comparable to Tuesday’s vote totals.
For years, Democrats have largely surrendered rural and deep-red areas, focusing almost exclusively on urban and suburban districts. But 2025 has signaled a different strategy: organize and compete everywhere, as Democrats are “full throttle and no brakes heading into next year,” according to DNC Chairman Ken Martin.
The midterm elections are becoming a referendum, and the Republican Party is not ready for it yet
The Republican Party’s electoral problems are worsening. The president’s stature, overall polling in Congress and shrinking margins in deep red territory should all be a wake-up call to Republican members and strategists.
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The recent power struggle among leaders, as evidenced by this week’s feud between Speaker Johnson and Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a member of his own leadership team, is further dampening Republicans’ prospects. Without a clear message on the economy, voters will continue to see the dysfunction of a Washington completely controlled by Republicans and blame the majority party.
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Democrats don’t need to win places like Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in 2026 to regain the majority. They just have to get close. On Tuesday they did much more than that.
CLICK HERE TO BY KEVIN WALLING
