The Big Money Show panel discusses President Donald Trump’s rate-sharing plan for lower- and middle-income Americans.
President Donald Trump’s The proposal to give Americans a $2,000 tariff dividend could come with a hefty price tag, according to a new analysis from a budget watchdog.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that the federal government wants to pay out the dividends in mid-2026, which would fall before the midterm elections. The timing could depend on Congress, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said legislation would be needed to approve the dividends.
“We’ll pay dividends later, sometime before, you know, probably the middle of next year, a little bit later,” Trump said. “Thousands of dollars for middle-income, middle-income individuals.”
Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividends for most Americans would cost an estimated $600 billion a year, the CRFB analysis found. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Announcing the proposal last week in a post on his Truth Social platform, the president said: “We are receiving trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying off our HUGE DEBT, $37 trillion. Record investments in the US, factories and factories are going up everywhere. A dividend of at least $2,000 per person (not including high-income earners!) will be paid to everyone.”
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated that if Trump were to happen tariff dividends are structured like the COVID-19 era stimulus payments that went to adults and children after income levels were taken into account, each round of rate payments would cost about $600 billion annually.
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The CRFB noted that the Trump administration’s tariffs have raised about $100 billion so far this year, including tariffs that have been deemed illegal by federal courts and are pending a court appeal. Supreme Court.
On an annual basis, the Trump administration’s tariffs — including those that may be struck down by the Supreme Court — are expected to generate about $300 billion a year. In contrast, net new tariff revenues, which are not subject to the Supreme Court’s ruling, bring in just under $100 billion per year.
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Tariffs are taxes on imported goods paid by importers, who typically pass on some of these higher costs to consumers through higher prices. (Qian Weizhong/VCG via Getty Images/Getty Images)
It is unclear whether the president plans to pay the tariff dividends annually or at less frequent intervals, or the size of the dividend, as he set “at least $2,000 per person” in his social media post.
The CRFB said if $2,000 in dividends were paid annually, it would do so increase shortages by $6 trillion over 10 years, adding that the costs are “about twice what President Trump estimates he will raise over the same period.”
If the government were to pay out tariff dividends on a revenue-neutral basis, and if current rates remain in force, they will $2,000 dividends According to the analysis, this could be paid every other year from 2027.
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However, if the lower courts’ rulings are upheld by the Supreme Court and a large portion of the Trump administration’s tariffs are declared illegal, the remaining tariff revenues would be enough to pay a $2,000 dividend after seven years.
“Using tariff revenues to pay dividends would mean that revenues cannot be used to reduce deficits or offset One Big Beautiful Bill Act borrowings,” CRFB wrote.
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The analysis also found that tariff revenue is being used for rebates or dividends, rather than paying out the tax national debtwould increase debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) to 127% by 2035, higher than the 120% expected under current law. Paying out $2,000 in dividends annually would increase debt to 134% of GDP.
