Farmers in southern Illinois say drought, high costs and a Chinese trade freeze are keeping soybean profits below breakeven this season.
Soybean farmers in the Midwest are bracing for another tough year as trade tensions with China have shuttered their largest export market and rising costs are pushing profits below breakeven.
Fourth-generation Illinois farmer Chris Otten said drought and lower prices have turned a routine harvest into a financial strain.
“We can’t harvest a crop that puts us in the black at all,” he said. “Everything we do will put us in the red.”
He said the family is leaning more on alfalfa and wheat to make up for the losses, although switching comes at a cost. “Every time you change something, your soil tests and fertilizer rates change and your costs increase.”
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China tends to be the dominant foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans, buying about half of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 — roughly $12.6 billion of total U.S. exports of $25.8 billion — according to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Agriculture.
Other top buyers included the European Union with about $2.45 billion, Mexico with $2.3 billion, Indonesia with $1.24 billion, Germany with $1.05 billion and Egypt with $1.01 billion.
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According to the White House, China has not purchased any bushel of American farmers, a sharp reversal that producers say is rippling through the Midwest.
Otten said the impact extends beyond the commodity price itself.
“Trade wars go both ways,” he said. “It’s not just about buying soybeans; it’s also about our fertilizer and chemical costs. Most of that comes from outside the country, and it costs us a lot more money.”
With production costs increasing by almost 50 percent in recent years, he says even average yields cannot cover the costs of seed, fertilizer and fuel.
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During remarks in the Oval Office on September 25, President Donald Trump said the administration plans to use the tariff revenues to support farmers affected by trade tensions. He told reporters: “We are going to give some of that tariff money that we have earned to our farmers, who will be hurt for a short period of time until the tariffs start to take advantage.”
The White House has not said when or how much aid could be provided, but officials have acknowledged discussions about possible assistance.
Brazil has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest soybean exporter, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The agency shows that Brazilian exports now exceed U.S. exports, after years of steady growth in South American manufacturing and infrastructure.
In the U.S., demand for soybeans has increased as more processing plants open to turn beans into oil and animal feed. That extra use has helped, but not enough to compensate for the decline in exports. USDA data shows that crushing capacity has increased every year since 2021, although farmers still rely heavily on foreign buyers to keep prices stable.
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Cash revenues from soybeans, a key measure of farm income, are expected to fall about 7 percent this year, a decline of about $3.4 billion, as growers face lower prices and smaller harvests, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Farmers say they are tightening budgets, delaying equipment purchases and storing more grain in hopes of better prices later. Otten said he is doing the same, but remains optimistic the market will turn around.
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“We’re just counting on it to go up,” he said. “We can’t afford to sell at a loss. But we’ve had ups and downs before. It will come back, it always does.”
